It is widely assumed that citizens are myopic, weighing policies' short-term consequences more heavily than long-term outcomes. Yet no study of public opinion has directly examined whether or why the timing of future policy consequences shapes citizens' policy attitudes. This article reports the results of an experiment designed to test for the presence and mechanisms of time-discounting in the mass public. The analysis yields evidence of significant discounting of delayed policy benefits and indicates that citizens' policy bias towards the present derives in large part from uncertainty about the long term: uncertainty about both long-run processes of policy causation and long-term political commitments. There is, in contrast, little evidence that positive time-preferences (impatience) or consumption-smoothing are significant sources of myopic policy attitudes.

Abstract.As compared with federal and provincial elections, municipal elections in Canada present voters with challenges of informational quantity and quality. These unique challenges have implications for the psychological structure of citizens' voting calculus. Using a survey of voters conducted after the city of Vancouver civic election of 2002, we estimate a model of vote choice for mayor. We show that voters respond to the different context in predictable ways: their choices are determined largely by ideological orientations and provincial partisanship, with local economic evaluations and local issues playing only a very small role.Résumé.Si on les compare aux élections fédérales et provinciales, les élections municipales au Canada posent, pour les électeurs, des problèmes d'accès à une information de qualité en quantité suffisante. Ces défis particuliers ont un impact sur la structure psychologique de leurs stratégies de vote. Nous estimerons ici un modèle de choix d'un candidat au poste de maire à l'aide des données d'un sondage effectué après les élections municipales de Vancouver de 2002. Nous démontrerons que les électeurs répondent à ce contexte différent de manière prévisible : leurs choix sont déterminés principalement par leur orientation idéologique et leur soutien partisan au niveau provincial, alors que l'évaluation de l'état de l'économie locale et les questions de politique locale ne jouent qu'un rôle limité.

This article examines the link between citizens’ policy attitudes and the institutional context in which policies are carried out. The article develops a theory of opinion formation toward policies that impose costs on citizens in order to invest in broadly valued social goods. In this framework, problems of agency loss and time inconsistency leave citizens uncertain about whether promised policy benefits will be delivered. Citizen support for public investments thus depends on whether the institutional context makes elites’ policy promises credible. We consider hypotheses about how the institutional allocation of authority and the institutional rules governing implementation affect citizen support for public investment, and we find broad support for the framework in three survey experiments administered to representative samples of U.S. citizens. The results shed light on the link between political institutions and citizens’ attitudes, the capacities of voters for substantive political reasoning, and the political prospects for public investment.

Abstract.Public support for legal recognition of same-sex marriage increased markedly in Canada over the course of the 1990s. The argument of this paper is that a sequence of Supreme Court decisions in the realm of same-sex relationship recognition—and the legislative activity that followed as a result—played a pivotal role in shaping public opinion on this issue. It is argued that the impact of these institutions was twofold. First, by framing the issue as one of equal rights, the courts and legislatures induced many Canadians to weigh equality-related considerations more heavily in the formation of opinions on same-sex marriage. Second, legal recognition of same-sex relationships directly persuaded many Canadians that such recognition was legitimate. The paper uses data from the Canadian Election Studies for 1993, 1997 and 2000.Résumé.Durant les années 1990 le soutien populaire aux mariages entre conjoints de même sexe s'est clairement renforcé. La thèse principale de cet article avance qu'une série de décisions de la Cour suprême portant sur les relations entre conjoints de même sexe, de même que les décisions adoptées par les pouvoirs législatifs en réponse à ces jugements, jouèrent un rôle crucial dans la formation de l'opinion publique sur ces questions. D'abord, en formulant le débat en termes d'égalité devant la loi, les appareils judiciaire et législatif ont amené les Canadiens à accorder plus de poids aux arguments liés à l'égalité dans leurs réflexions sur le sujet. En second lieu, la reconnaissance légale des unions entre conjoints de même sexe a persuadé les Canadiens de la légitimité de cette reconnaissance. Les conclusions de ce texte s'appuient sur les données des éditions d'Étude électorale canadienne de 1993, 1997 et 2000.

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