The aim of this contribution is to prepare climate change scenarios in form of time series of air temperature and precipitation amount for Liptovský Hrádok in 21 st century based on three global climate model outputs. Liptovský Hrádok lies at the SW foot of the High Tatras Mts. (640 m a.s.l.). This station is representative station for Liptov basin (mountain region in Slovakia) and it ranks among the best meteorological stations in Slovakia with sufficiently long and good-quality observations . In this contribution model data from the next three different global coupled (atmosphere-ocean) general circulation models (GCMs) are utilized: model data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York (GISS 1998 model), from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria, B.C. (cgcm2 model) and from the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK (HadCM3 model). Statistical method for downscaling of global GCMs outputs to the regional level is used.
The present article focuses on the distribution of Pinus mugo under conditions in the central Tatra Mountains, the main mountain range of the Western Carpathians. We analyze the response of P. mugo distribution to selected abiotic habitat conditions in the eastern Tatra Mountains. The study also compares data on the distribution of P. mugo in the higher central Tatras and in the hills of the western Tatras published in previous studies. The source data for this study were aerial photographs from 3 periods (1955, 1986, and 2002). Mountain areas covered by mountain pine were identified and analyzed by ArcGIS 10, and pine fields were classified with the help of the gray scale mode. A strip of mountain pine above the upper limit of the forest represents an easily identifiable boundary on the aerial photographs: 25 wellrecognized localities were selected to examine the changes in the tree line in the eastern Tatras. The distribution of mountain pine increased in the central granite and eastern limestone Tatra Mountains from 1955 to 2002 at all monitored sites. The percentage of total surface area covered in P. mugo increased from 28.11% in 1955 to 34.74% in 1986 and to 39.01% in 2002. The study also analyzes the dispersal of mountain pine over 40 years in relation to elevation, slope, radiation aspect, flow accumulation, and vertical and horizontal curvature. The results of this study explain ongoing vegetation changes and are of importance as a contribution to monitoring of climate change in the mid-European mountain areas.
This paper evaluates land-cover change in the high mountain landscapes of parts of the Tatra Mountains (Western Carpathians, Europe). As well as carrying out a basic analysis of land-cover changes, we compared how these changes related to several abiotic variables and socio-economic influences. We used a geographic information system to analyse aerial images from surveys made in 1955, 1986 and 2010. The areas studied have undergone a number of changes, due most importantly to the establishment of a national park, long-term forestry management, natural disturbances, land abandonment, and the development of tourism. With regard to changes in vegetation cover, it is debatable whether these are related to climate change or to land-use change. Our study revealed two main changes: coniferous forest disturbance, and the expansion of shrubs (Pinus mugo) into the alpine zone. We also observed a slight upward shift of vegetation boundaries for coniferous forest, shrubs and alpine meadows over a period of more than 50 years (1956 to 2010). If we take into consideration (1) that forest ecosystems (and the tree line) have been changed significantly by human influence, and (2) that windstorms provoking outbreaks of spruce bark beetle are not a new phenomenon but more or less periodical in the Tatra Mountains, our results cannot provide clear evidence that climate change is partly responsible for the shift to higher elevations of the boundaries of mountain vegetation.
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