Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has proliferated, with varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. This problem is exacerbated by the low event rates of large solar flares. The challenges of forecasting rare events have long been recognized in the meteorology community, but have yet to be fully acknowledged by the space weather community. During the interagency workshop on "all clear" forecasts held in Boulder, CO in 2009, the performance of a number of existing algorithms was compared on common data sets, specifically line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity images from MDI, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We demonstrate the importance of making such systematic comparisons, and of using standard verification statistics to determine what constitutes a good prediction scheme. When a comparison was made in this fashion, no one method clearly outperformed all others, which may in part be due to the strong correlations among the parameters used by different methods to characterize an active region. For M-class flares and above, the set of methods tends towards a weakly positive skill score (as measured with several distinct metrics), with no participating method proving substantially better than climatological forecasts.
A clear understanding of the nature of the pre-eruptive magnetic field configurations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is required for understanding and eventually predicting solar eruptions. Only two, but seemingly disparate, magnetic configurations are considered viable; namely, sheared magnetic arcades (SMA) and magnetic flux ropes (MFR). They can form via three physical mechanisms (flux emergence, flux cancellation, helicity condensation). Whether the CME culprit is an SMA or an MFR, however, has been strongly debated for thirty years. We formed an International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team to address and resolve this issue and report the outcome here. We review the status of the field across modeling and observations, identify the open and closed issues, compile lists of SMA and MFR observables to be tested against observations and outline research activities to close the gaps in our current understanding. We propose that the combination of multi-viewpoint multi-thermal coronal observations and multiheight vector magnetic field measurements is the optimal approach for resolving
Abstract. We re-examine observations bearing on the origin of metric type II bursts for six impulsive solar events in November 1997. Previous analyses of these events indicated that the metric type Uls were due to flares (either blast waves or ejecta). Our point of departure was the study of Zhang et al. (2001) based on the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph's Cl instrument (occulting disk at 1.1 R 0 ) that identified the rapid acceleration phase of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with the rise phase of soft X-ray light curves of associated flares. We find that the inferred onset of rapid CME acceleration in each of the six cases occurred 1-3 min before the onset of metric type II emission, in contrast to the results of previous studies for certain of these events that obtained CME launch times "-25-45 min earlier than type II onset. The removal of the CME-metric type II timing discrepancy in these events and, more generally, the identification of the onset of the rapid acceleration phase of CMEs with the flare impulsive phase undercuts a significant argument against CMEs as metric type II shock drivers. In general, the six events exhibited: (1) ample evidence of dynamic behavior [soft X-ray ejecta, extreme ultra-violet imaging telescope (EIT) dimming onsets, and wave initiation (observed variously in Ha, EUV, and soft X-rays)] during the inferred fast acceleration phases of the CMEs, consistent with the cataclysmic disruption of the low solar atmosphere one would expect to be associated with a CME; and (2) an organic relationship between EIT dimmings (generally taken to be source regions of CMEs) and EIT waves (which are highly associated with metric type II bursts) indicative of a CME-driver scenario. Our analysis indicates that the broad (-'90' to halo) CMEs observed in the outer LASCO coronagraphs for these impulsive events began life as relatively small-scale structures, with angular spans of -15' in the low corona. A review of on-going work bearing on other aspects (than timing) of the question of the origin of metric type II bursts (CME association; connectivity of metric and decametric-hectometric type II shocks; spatial relationship between CMEs and metric shocks) leads to the conclusion that CMEs remain a strong candidate to be the principal/sole driver of metric type II shocks vis-A-vis flare blast waves/ejecta.
An erupting flux rope (FR) draws its overlying coronal loops upward, causing a coronal mass ejection. The legs of the overlying loops with opposite polarities are driven together. Current sheets (CSs) form, and magnetic reconnection, producing underneath flare arcades, occurs in the CSs. Employing Solar Dynamic Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images, we study a FR eruption on 2015 April 23, and for the first time report the oscillation of CSs underneath the erupting FR. The FR is observed in all AIA extreme-ultraviolet passbands, indicating that it has both hot and warm components. Several bright CSs, connecting the erupting FR and the underneath flare arcades, are observed only in hotter AIA channels, e.g., 131 and 94 Å. Using the differential emission measure (EM) analysis, we find that both the temperature and the EM of CSs temporally increase rapidly, reach the peaks, and then decrease slowly. A significant delay between the increases of the temperature and the EM is detected. The temperature, EM, and density spatially decrease along the CSs with increasing heights. For a well-developed CS, the temperature (EM) decreases from 9.6 MK (8 × 1028 cm−5) to 6.2 MK (5 × 1027 cm−5) in 52 Mm. Along the CSs, dark supra-arcade downflows (SADs) are observed, and one of them separates a CS into two. While flowing sunward, the speeds of the SADs decrease. The CSs oscillate with a period of 11 minutes, an amplitude of 1.5 Mm, and a phase speed of 200 ± 30 km s−1. One of the oscillations lasts for more than 2 hr. These oscillations represent fast-propagating magnetoacoustic kink waves.
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