The lesson of ivermectin: meta-analyses based on summary data alone are inherently unreliable To the Editor -The global demand for prophylactic and treatment options for COVID-19 has in turn created a demand for both randomized clinical trials, and the synthesis of those trials into meta-analyses by systematic review. This process has been

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD) acquired the global licensing rights for the antiviral molnupiravir, promising affordable access via licensing deals. Numerous Indian pharmaceutical companies subsequently conducted trials of the drug. Registered trials of molnupiravir were searched on the Clinical Trials Registry–India (CTRI) and efforts made to detect resulting public data. Per the CTRI, 12 randomized trials of molnupiravir were conducted in 13 694 Indian patients, from mid-2021. By August 2022, only a preprint and medical conference presentation had resulted. Additionally, two trials were mentioned in press releases suggesting failure of treatment. The available data contain unexplained results that differ significantly from both the PANORAMIC and MSD MOVe-OUT trials. Approximately one-third of the global data on molnupiravir remain unpublished. We conducted a meta-analysis with four studies that provided results and observed that molnupiravir does not have a significant benefit for hospitalizations.

Introduction: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Merck Sharp and Dohme (MSD) acquired the global licensing rights for molnupiravir. MSD allowed Indian manufacturers to produce the drug under voluntary license. Indian companies conducted local clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy and safety of molnupiravir. Methods Searches of the Clinical Trials Registry-India (CTRI) were conducted to find registered trials of molnupiravir in India. Subsequent investigations were performed to assess which clinical trials had been presented or published. Results According to the CTRI, 12 randomised trials of molnupiravir were conducted in India, in 13,694 patients, starting in late May 2021. By July 2022, none of the 12 trials has been published, one was presented at a medical conference, and two were announced in press releases suggesting failure of treatment. Results from three trials were shared with the World Health Organisation. One of these three trials had many unexplained results, with effects of treatment significantly different from the MSD MOVE-OUT trial in a similar population. Discussion The lack of results runs counter to established practices and leaves a situation where approximately 90% of the global data on molnupiravir has not been published in any form. Access to patient-level databases is required to investigate risks of bias or medical fraud.