Summary A prophylactic or therapeutic vaccine offers the best hope to curb the HIV-AIDS epidemic gripping sub-Saharan Africa, but remains elusive. A major challenge is the extreme viral sequence variability among strains. Systematic means to guide immunogen design for highly variable pathogens like HIV are not available. Using computational models, we have developed an approach to translate available viral sequence data into quantitative landscapes of viral fitness as a function of the amino acid sequences of its constituent proteins. Predictions emerging from our computationally defined landscapes for the proteins of HIV-1 clade B Gag were positively tested against new in vitro fitness measurements, and were consistent with previously defined in vitro measurements and clinical observations. These landscapes chart the peaks and valleys of viral fitness as protein sequences change, and inform the design of immunogens and therapies that can target regions of the virus most vulnerable to selection pressure.

Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model), generalizing our previous approach (Ising model) that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these) predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = −0.74, p = 3.6×10−6) are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = −0.83, p = 3.7×10−12). Performance of the Potts model (r = −0.73, p = 9.7×10−9) was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion, and harnessing this knowledge for immunogen design.

BackgroundThe highly genetically diverse HIV-1 group M subtypes may differ in their biological properties. Nef is an important mediator of viral pathogenicity; however, to date, a comprehensive inter-subtype comparison of Nef in vitro function has not been undertaken. Here, we investigate two of Nef’s most well-characterized activities, CD4 and HLA class I downregulation, for clones obtained from 360 chronic patients infected with HIV-1 subtypes A, B, C or D.ResultsSingle HIV-1 plasma RNA Nef clones were obtained from N=360 antiretroviral-naïve, chronically infected patients from Africa and North America: 96 (subtype A), 93 (B), 85 (C), and 86 (D). Nef clones were expressed by transfection in an immortalized CD4+ T-cell line. CD4 and HLA class I surface levels were assessed by flow cytometry. Nef expression was verified by Western blot. Subset analyses and multivariable linear regression were used to adjust for differences in age, sex and clinical parameters between cohorts. Consensus HIV-1 subtype B and C Nef sequences were synthesized and functionally assessed. Exploratory sequence analyses were performed to identify potential genotypic correlates of Nef function. Subtype B Nef clones displayed marginally greater CD4 downregulation activity (p = 0.03) and markedly greater HLA class I downregulation activity (p < 0.0001) than clones from other subtypes. Subtype C Nefs displayed the lowest in vitro functionality. Inter-subtype differences in HLA class I downregulation remained statistically significant after controlling for differences in age, sex, and clinical parameters (p < 0.0001). The synthesized consensus subtype B Nef showed higher activities compared to consensus C Nef, which was most pronounced in cells expressing lower protein levels. Nef clones exhibited substantial inter-subtype diversity: cohort consensus residues differed at 25% of codons, while a similar proportion of codons exhibited substantial inter-subtype differences in major variant frequency. These amino acids, along with others identified in intra-subtype analyses, represent candidates for mediating inter-subtype differences in Nef function.ConclusionsResults support a functional hierarchy of subtype B > A/D > C for Nef-mediated CD4 and HLA class I downregulation. The mechanisms underlying these differences and their relevance to HIV-1 pathogenicity merit further investigation.

Significance Factors that influence the virulence of HIV are of direct relevance to ongoing efforts to contain, and ultimately eradicate, the HIV epidemic. We here investigate in Botswana and South Africa, countries severely affected by HIV, the impact on HIV virulence of adaptation of HIV to protective HLA alleles such as HLA-B*57. In Botswana, where the epidemic started earlier and reached higher adult seroprevalence than in South Africa, HIV replication capacity is lower. HIV is also better adapted to HLA-B*57, which in Botswana has no protective effect, in contrast to its impact in South Africa. Modelling studies indicate that increasing antiretroviral therapy access may also contribute to accelerated declines in HIV virulence over the coming decades.

BackgroundViruses can evade immune surveillance, but the underlying mechanisms are insufficiently understood. Here, we sought to understand the mechanisms by which natural killer (NK) cells recognize HIV-1-infected cells and how this virus can evade NK-cell-mediated immune pressure.Methods and FindingsTwo sequence mutations in p24 Gag associated with the presence of specific KIR/HLA combined genotypes were identified in HIV-1 clade C viruses from a large cohort of infected, untreated individuals in South Africa (n = 392), suggesting viral escape from KIR+ NK cells through sequence variations within HLA class I—presented epitopes. One sequence polymorphism at position 303 of p24 Gag (TGag303V), selected for in infected individuals with both KIR2DL3 and HLA-C*03:04, enabled significantly better binding of the inhibitory KIR2DL3 receptor to HLA-C*03:04-expressing cells presenting this variant epitope compared to the wild-type epitope (wild-type mean 18.01 ± 10.45 standard deviation [SD] and variant mean 44.67 ± 14.42 SD, p = 0.002). Furthermore, activation of primary KIR2DL3+ NK cells from healthy donors in response to HLA-C*03:04+ target cells presenting the variant epitope was significantly reduced in comparison to cells presenting the wild-type sequence (wild-type mean 0.78 ± 0.07 standard error of the mean [SEM] and variant mean 0.63 ± 0.07 SEM, p = 0.012). Structural modeling and surface plasmon resonance of KIR/peptide/HLA interactions in the context of the different viral sequence variants studied supported these results. Future studies will be needed to assess processing and antigen presentation of the investigated HIV-1 epitope in natural infection, and the consequences for viral control.ConclusionsThese data provide novel insights into how viruses can evade NK cell immunity through the selection of mutations in HLA-presented epitopes that enhance binding to inhibitory NK cell receptors. Better understanding of the mechanisms by which HIV-1 evades NK-cell-mediated immune pressure and the functional validation of a structural modeling approach will facilitate the development of novel targeted immune interventions to harness the antiviral activities of NK cells.