A French economist uses official Russian data sources to analyze Russia's economic situation since the financial crisis of 1998. The causes of and possible threats to the recent rebound as well as short-term, mid-range, and long-term policy options for stable growth are examined. Broader political considerations and global economic trends are linked to the examination and prediction of Russia's economic policies and prospects.

A distinguished French specialist on the Soviet and Russian economies analyzes the financial, political, and institutional crises facing Russia in 1999. Discussion of the vulnerabilities of the economy prior to the crash of 1998 is followed by a suggested program for coping with the currency, banking, and public finance crises, and for building market institutions. Comparisons are drawn with the post-war experiences of France, Italy, and Japan. The article includes an extended critique of the assumptions underlying alternative interpretations and prescriptions.

This article sets out to demonstrate that every economy at a specific time has its inherent, quite definite, rate of inflation. Inflation rates may vary widely depending on economic situation and should be estimated in a dynamic perspective. They include a component associated with the degree of transformation of production facilities, which determines the "normal" rate of inflation. Another component, reflecting the influence of extra investment, which may prove necessary to compensate for the previous period of decapitalization of the Russian economy, varies through the investment cycle. This makes it possible to forecast inflation fluctuations around the "normal" rate; their recognition should be the basis for establishing a socially and politically acceptable rate of inflation within a particular development strategy.

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