Ultrasonography (US) is generally recommended for the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients at risk. However, in patients with cirrhosis who have sufficiently high HCC incidence, surveillance using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with liver‐specific contrast showed markedly higher sensitivity in detecting early‐stage HCC than US. This study aimed to compare the cost‐effectiveness of semiannual surveillance using MRI versus US in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to identify the population that would gain optimal cost‐effectiveness through MRI surveillance. We designed a Markov model to compare the expected costs and quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs), between MRI and US, with a 20‐year time horizon, from the health care system perspective. The starting age of the cohort was 50 years, and 71% had hepatitis B virus–associated cirrhosis. The cycle length was 6 months. Transition probabilities and costs were obtained mainly from a prospective cohort study (the PRIUS study, NCT01446666). Cost and effectiveness were discounted at 5%. An incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated and tested using sensitivity analyses. The cost‐effectiveness analysis indicated that the use of MRI incurred $5,562 incremental costs, 0.384 incremental life‐years (LYs), and 0.221 incremental QALYs compared to US. The annual HCC incidence was the most influential factor on the ICER. The ICERs were $14,474/LY and $25,202/QALY at an annual HCC incidence of 3%. When the HCC incidence rate was >1.81%, the ICER was below $50,000/QALY. With increased HCC incidence, MRI surveillance was acceptable as a cost‐effective option, even with an increased MRI/US cost ratio. Conclusion: Semiannual surveillance using MRI with liver‐specific contrast may be more cost‐effective than US in patients with virus‐associated compensated cirrhosis at sufficiently high HCC risk despite the higher test cost of MRI.

ObjectiveThe cost-effectiveness of antiviral treatment in adult immune-tolerant (IT) phase chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is uncertain.DesignWe designed a Markov model to compare expected costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of starting antiviral treatment at IT-phase (‘treat-IT’) vs delaying the therapy until active hepatitis phase (‘untreat-IT’) in CHB patients over a 20-year horizon. A cohort of 10 000 non-cirrhotic 35-year-old patients in IT-phase CHB (hepatitis B e antigen-positive, mean serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels 7.6 log10 IU/mL, and normal alanine aminotransferase levels) was simulated. Input parameters were obtained from previous studies at Asan Medical Center, Korea. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the treat-IT and untreat-IT strategies was calculated.ResultsFrom a healthcare system perspective, the treat-IT strategy with entecavir or tenofovir had an ICER of US$16 516/QALY, with an annual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence of 0.73% in the untreat-IT group. With the annual HCC risk ≥0.54%, the treat-IT strategy was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$20 000/QALY. From a societal perspective considering productivity loss by premature death, the treat-IT strategy was extremely cost-effective, and was dominant (ICER <0) if the HCC risk was ≥0.43%, suggesting that the treat-IT strategy incurs less costs than the untreat-IT strategy. The most influential parameters on cost-effectiveness of the treat-IT strategy were those related with HCC risk (HBV DNA levels, platelet counts and age) and drug cost.ConclusionStarting antiviral therapy in IT phase is cost-effective compared with delaying the treatment until the active hepatitis phase in CHB patients, especially with increasing HCC risk, decreasing drug costs and consideration of productivity loss.

This study analyzed the incidence and risk factors of subsequent osteoporotic fractures in South Korea. The results showed that the incidence rate of subsequent fractures within 24 months was 10.23 per 100 person-years. Additionally, the index hip fracture site was a significant risk factor for a subsequent fracture. Purpose To identify and analyze the incidence and risk factors of subsequent osteoporotic fractures in South Korea. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from the National Health Insurance Review and Assessment claims database from 2012 to 2017. Men and women with osteoporosis, aged ≥50 years, with index fractures between July 1, 2014, and July 1, 2015, were included. The incidence rate of subsequent fractures was calculated by determining the number of second event within 2 years from the index fracture. To identify the risk factors for subsequent fractures, we applied the Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs). Results Of the 73,717 patients with osteoporotic fractures, 13,203 (17.91%) had a subsequent fracture. The incidence rate of subsequent fractures within 24 months was 10.23/100 person-years. The index fracture site was a significant risk factor for a subsequent fracture, with the hip showing the highest risk (HR, 7.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.77-8.34), followed by the vertebra (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.91-2.06). The risk of subsequent fractures increased with a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score (CCI score ≥ 5: HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.67-1.92). Conclusion The incidence rate of subsequent osteoporotic fractures in South Korea is similar or higher than that reported in the USA and Europe. A hip fracture within the prior 2 years, relative to other fracture sites, significantly increased the risk of subsequent fractures in osteoporosis patients. Patients who have these risk factors need closer disease management to prevent subsequent fractures.

Our lifetime simulated data found that DLM was relatively more favorable than BDQ. A Markov model can be considered an alternative approach when there is an absence of head-to-head clinical data.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the economic burden of subsequent fracture in osteoporosis patients with incident fracture. Methods: The authors conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of the South Korean national health insurance claims data. Study subjects included osteoporosis patients aged 50 with incident fracture (July 1, 2014-June 30, 2015. Fracture-related 1-year healthcare cost was evaluated after incident fracture for patients with and without subsequent fracture, defined as a fracture occurring within 2 years from incident fracture at a different site or at the same site after 6-months washout period. Perpatient-per-month (PPPM) cost was calculated by dividing each patient's cumulative healthcare cost until subsequent fracture with time-to-subsequent-fracture. For the patients without subsequent fracture, PPPM cost equaled 1-year monthly cost. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to estimate the ratio of increase in healthcare cost to assess the economic impact of subsequent fracture. Results: A total of 73,717 osteoporosis patients with incident fracture were identified, consisting of 52.1% vertebral, 1.9% hip, and 46.0% non-vertebral-non-hip fractures. Subsequent fracture occurred in 17.9% of patients with average time-to-subsequent-fracture of 256 days. Patients with subsequent fracture had significantly higher 1-year healthcare cost after incident fracture than those without subsequent fracture