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Abstract:The Seoul metropolitan area is densely populated with 40 percent of Korean people and quite weak to the seismic hazard. According to the analysis of historical documents, the largest earthquake occurred in this area is MMI VIII-IX acompanying with a large shaking, collapse of stone walls, collapse of houses, and many casualties. Two times of damaging earthquakes occurred in the first century (A.D. 27, 89), and there was a long quiet period of about 1430 years. Another big earthquakes re-occurred three times in the 16-17 century (1518, 1613, 1692) and then a quiet period has continued to the present time. Just after Seoul earthquake in 1518, aftershocks occurred almost 19 days consecutively and many triggered earthquakes occurred not only in Seoul metropolitan area but also in Hwanghae province, northern Korea. It indicates that the largest potential earthquake in and around Seoul is MMI VIII-IX with a long occurrence period of about 1400-1500 years.

The NNE-trending Yangsan Fault (YSF) is the most prominent fault in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula and has a continuous trace about 200 km long. Activity on this fault was recently investigated using aerial photographs, topographic analysis, and trenching. The geomorphologic evidence of Late Quaternary faulting is clearly recognized on both the northern (Yugyeri and Tosung-ri areas) and southern parts (Eonyang to Tongdosa area) of the fault. The main YSF is marked by a zone of shattered rock that is tens of meters wide and zone of fault gouge. During the Late Quaternary, right-lateral movement occurred mainly on the southern part, as shown by lowangle striations on the fault plane, elongation of deformation features in the fault gouge. The estimated vertical slip rate is about 0.02-0.07 mm/yr, and the lateral slip rate may be several times larger than the vertical rate. The most recent event occurred prior to deposition of Holocene alluvium. In the northern part, the fault locally changes trend to almost N-S, dips to the east and has reverse movement. The average vertical slip rate is estimated less than 0.1 mm/yr. The most recent event probably occurred after 1314 cal. years BP (A.D. 536).