No abstract

Pressure vessel components subject to high temperature and pressure are susceptible to life-limiting creep and/or creep-induced failure. Traditional continuum damage mechanics (CDM) based creep-damage model are used extensively for the prediction and design against creep in these components. Conventional creep experiments show considerable uncertainty in the creep response of materials where scatter can span decades of creep life. The objective of this paper is to introduce the probabilistic methods into a deterministic creep-damage model in order to predict experimental uncertainty. In this study, a modified Wilshire model capable of creep deformation, damage, and rupture prediction is selected. Creep deformation data for 304 stainless steel is collected from the literature consisting of quintuplicate (five) tests at 600°C with varying stress levels. It is hypothesized that the scatter in creep data is due to: test condition (temperature fluctuations and eccentric loading), initial damage (pre-existing surface and sub-surface defects), and metallurgical (local variation in microstructure) uncertainties. Probability distribution functions (pdfs) and Monte Carlo simulations are applied to introduce the uncertainties into the modified Wilshire equations. The domain of each source of uncertainty must be defined. A systematic calibration approach is followed where the material constant for each creep curve (in the quintuple) are obtained and statistical analysis is performed on the material properties to assess the random distribution associated with each uncertain material parameter. The probabilistic calibration begins with the introduction of test condition randomness (±2°C and ±3.2% MPa of nominal temperature/stress) in accordance with the ASTM standards. Cross calibration of temperature-stress variability proceeds the approximation of initial damage uncertainty which captures the remaining scatter in the data. Deterministic calibration unveils the range of variabilities associated with the material properties. The best-fitted pdfs are assigned to each uncertain parameter and subsequently, the deterministic model is converted into a probabilistic model where reliability is a tunable factor. A large number of Monte Carlo simulation are conducted to generate probabilistic creep deformation, minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR), and stress-rupture (SR) predictions. It is demonstrated that the probabilistic model produces quantitatively and qualitatively good fits when compared with experimental data. Future work will be directed towards the inclusion of service condition related uncertainty (power plant, turbine blade, Gen IV nuclear reactor application) into the probabilistic framework where the uncertainties are more robust.

In this study, a qualification of accelerated creep-resistance of Inconel 718 is assessed using the novel Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) model and the stepped isostress method (SSM) and predictions are made to conventional creep data. Conventional creep testing (CCT) is a long-term continuous process, in fact, the ASME B&PV III requires that 10,000+ hours of experiments must be conducted to each heat for materials employed in boilers and/or pressure vessel components. This process is costly and not feasible for rapid development of new materials. As an alternative, accelerated creep testing techniques have been developed to reduce the time needed to characterize the creep resistance of materials. Most techniques are based upon the time-temperature-stress superposition principle (TTSSP) that predicts minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR) and stress-rupture behaviors but lack the ability to predict creep deformation and consider deformation mechanisms that occur for experiments of longer duration. The stepped isostress method (SSM) has been developed which enables the prediction of creep deformation response as well as reduce the time needed for qualification of materials. The SSM approach has been successful for polymer, polymeric composites, and recently has been introduced for metals. In this study, the WCS constitutive model, calibrated to SSM test data, qualifies the creep resistance of Inconel 718 at 750°C and predictions are compared to CCT data. The SSM data is calibrated into the model and the WCS model generates realistic predictions of stress-rupture, MSCR, damage, and creep deformation.

There exists a challenge in predicting the long-term creep of materials (3 105 hours) where 11+ years of continuous testing is required to physically collect creep data. As an alternative to physical testing, constitutive models are calibrated to short-term data (< 104 hours) and employed to extrapolate the long-term creep behavior. The Wilshire model was introduced to predict the stress-rupture and minimum-creep-strain-rate behavior of materials and the model is well-accepted due to the explicit description of stress- and temperature-dependence allowing predictions across isotherms and stress levels. There is an ongoing effort to determine how alloy form affects the long-term creep predictions of the Wilshire model. In this study, stress-rupture and minimum-creep-strain-rate predictions are generated for alloy P91 in tube, plate, and pipe form. Data is gathered from the National Institute of Materials Science (NIMS) material database for alloy P91 at multiple isotherms. Following the establish calibration method for the Wilshire model, post-audit validation is performed using short-term data from NIMS to vet the extrapolations accuracy of each form at different isotherms. The Wilshire model demonstrates successful extrapolative techniques for the stress-rupture and minimum-creep-strain-rate of tube, plate, and pipe forms across multiple isotherms. Overall the form with the highest extrapolative accuracy for both stress-rupture and minimum-creep-strain-rate is the plate and the lowest one is the pipe. Stress-rupture design maps are provided where stress and temperature are axes and rupture-time is in contour. The design maps can be applied to: (a) given the boundary conditions, determine the design life (b) given the design life, determine the acceptable range of a boundary conditions. The latter is more useful in turbomachinery design.

In this study, a qualification of accelerated creep-resistance of Inconel 718 is assessed using the novel Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) model and the stepped isostress method (SSM) and predictions are made to conventional creep data. Conventional creep testing (CCT) is a long-term continuous process, in fact, the ASME B&PV III requires that 10,000+ hours of experiments must be conducted to each heat for materials employed in boilers and/or pressure vessel components. This process is costly and not feasible for rapid development of new materials. As an alternative, accelerated creep testing techniques have been developed to reduce the time needed to characterize the creep resistance of materials. Most techniques are based upon the time-temperature-stress superposition principle (TTSSP) that predicts minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR) and stress-rupture behaviors but lack the ability to predict creep deformation and consider deformation mechanisms that occur for experiments of longer duration. The stepped isostress method (SSM) has been developed which enables the prediction of creep deformation response as well as reduce the time needed for qualification of materials. The SSM approach has been successful for polymer, polymeric composites, and recently has been introduced for metals. In this study, the WCS constitutive model, calibrated to SSM test data, qualifies the creep resistance of Inconel 718 at 750°C and predictions are compared to CCT data. The WCS model has proven to make long-term predictions for stress-rupture, minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR), creep deformation, and damage in metallic materials. The SSM varies stress levels after time interval adding damage to the material, which can be tracked by the WCS model. The SSM data is calibrated into the model and the WCS model generates realistic predictions of stress-rupture, MSCR, damage, and creep deformation. The calibrated material constants are used to generate predictions of stress-rupture and are post-audit validated using the National Institute of Material Science (NIMS) database. Similarly, the MCSR predictions are compared from previous studies. Finally the creep deformation predictions are compared with real data and is determined that the results are well in between the expected boundaries. Material characterization and mechanical properties can be determined at a faster rate and with a more cost-effective method. This is beneficial for multiple applications such as in additive manufacturing, composites, spacecraft, and Industrial Gas Turbines (IGT).