Purpose This paper aims to provide a preliminary systemic portrayal of risk relationships in the context of critical infrastructures (CIs) during disasters and assess the adequacy of the Hyogo Framework in addressing such relationships and the resultant cascading effects. Design/methodology/approach Using a systems thinking approach, this study views CIs as complex systems operating in the context of broader societies and disaster conditions. Using a causal loop diagramming technique, relationships across a large number of variables are mapped to capture pathways for cascading effects across CIs. This theoretical understanding is supplemented by cascading effects seen during the 2011 Japanese disaster. The Hyogo Framework indicators are mapped both to causal variables and disaster events to identify gaps. Data on cascading effects were collected from journals, news articles and reports by governments and NGOs. Findings The Hyogo Framework does not address facilitation by the host country of international aid during disasters; identification of infrastructure interdependencies and prioritization planning for recovery operations; national risk assessments that account for interrelated disasters; and private sector’s need to understand CIs’ dependencies and establish robust continuity plans that account for potential infrastructure failures. Originality/value This paper is the first attempt to assess the Hyogo Framework’s potential in addressing risk relationships and cascading effects. The knowledge provided in the paper is derived from the synthesis of previous cascading effects’ literature and examination of a real-life disaster. Findings are applicable to any disaster risk reduction initiative that seeks to anticipate and mitigate risk relationships and their implications for CIs during disasters.

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. To request defense acquisition research, to become a research sponsor, or to print additional copies of reports, please contact any of the staff listed on the Acquisition Research Program website (www.acquisitionresearch.net). AbstractAnalyses of alternatives (AoAs) play an important part in the acquisition process. The act of selecting a set of alternatives to be compared in an AoA can help decision makers understand and manage key tradeoffs-or it can prematurely constrict or otherwise distort the solution trade space. It is fairly easy to point to completed AoAs as evidence that many of them have been poorly scoped. But it is much more difficult to spot the problem in real time-or to keep it from occurring at all.This report identifies four principles designed to help minimize the occurrence of poorly scoped AoAs. These four principles were arrived at by applying formalisms from the disciplines of systems analysis and systems thinking, in combination with a series of semi-structured interviews with members of the AoA stakeholder community (consumers, sponsors, practitioners, and critics).The principles may be summarized, in systems terminology, as Focus on Outputs and Think Backwards; Start With the Exterior and Work Inwards; Apply Constraints Carefully; and Iterate and Reduce Uncertainty. The report translates these principles into practical terms that can be understood and applied by AoA stakeholders.

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. . WORK UNIT NUMBER REPORT DATE APR 20132 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)Analytic Services, Inc,5275 Leesburg Pike Suite N-5000,Falls Church,VA,220418. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S)11 Preface & AcknowledgementsWelcome to our Tenth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium! We regret that this year it will be a "paper only" event. The double whammy of sequestration and a continuing resolution, with the attendant restrictions on travel and conferences, created too much uncertainty to properly stage the event. We will miss the dialogue with our acquisition colleagues and the opportunity for all our researchers to present their work. However, we intend to simulate the symposium as best we can, and these Proceedings present an opportunity for the papers to be published just as if they had been delivered. In any case, we will have a rich store of papers to draw from for next year's event scheduled for May 14-15, 2014! Despite these temporary setbacks, our Acquisition Research Program (ARP) here at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) continues at a normal pace. Since the ARP's founding in 2003, over 1,200 original research reports have been added to the acquisition body of knowledge. We continue to add to that library, located online at www.acquisitionresearch.net, at a rate of roughly 140 reports per year. This activity has engaged researchers at over 70 universities and other institutions, greatly enhancing the diversity of thought brought to bear on the business activities of the DoD.We generate this level of activity in three ways. First, we solicit research topics from academia and other institutions through an annual Broad Agency Announcement, sponsored by the USD(AT&L). Second, we issue an annual internal call for proposals to seek NPS faculty research supporting the interests of our program sponsors. Finally, we serve as a "broker" to market specific research topics identified by our sponsors to NPS graduate students. This three-pronged approach provides for a rich and broad diversity of scholarly rigor mixed with a good blend of practitioner experience in the field of acquisition. We are grateful to...