BackgroundMost previous attempts to determine the psychological cost of military deployment have been limited by reliance on convenience samples, lack of pre-deployment data or confidentiality and cross-sectional designs.AimsThis study addressed these limitations using a population-based, prospective cohort of US military personnel deployed in support of the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.MethodThe sample consisted of US military service members in all branches including active duty, reserve and national guard who deployed once (n= 3393) or multiple times (n= 4394). Self-reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress were obtained prior to deployment and at two follow-ups spaced 3 years apart. Data were examined for longitudinal trajectories using latent growth mixture modelling.ResultsEach analysis revealed remarkably similar post-traumatic stress trajectories across time. The most common pattern was low–stable post-traumatic stress or resilience (83.1% single deployers, 84.9% multiple deployers), moderate–improving (8.0%, 8.5%), then worsening–chronic posttraumatic stress (6.7%, 4.5%), high–stable (2.2% single deployers only) and high–improving (2.2% multiple deployers only). Covariates associated with each trajectory were identified.ConclusionsThe final models exhibited similar types of trajectories for single and multiple deployers; most notably, the stable trajectory of low post-traumatic stress pre- to post-deployment, or resilience, was exceptionally high. Several factors predicting trajectories were identified, which we hope will assist in future research aimed at decreasing the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder among deployers.

BackgroundNonresponse bias in a longitudinal study could affect the magnitude and direction of measures of association. We identified sociodemographic, behavioral, military, and health-related predictors of response to the first follow-up questionnaire in a large military cohort and assessed the extent to which nonresponse biased measures of association.MethodsData are from the baseline and first follow-up survey of the Millennium Cohort Study. Seventy-six thousand, seven hundred and seventy-five eligible individuals completed the baseline survey and were presumed alive at the time of follow-up; of these, 54,960 (71.6%) completed the first follow-up survey. Logistic regression models were used to calculate inverse probability weights using propensity scores.ResultsCharacteristics associated with a greater probability of response included female gender, older age, higher education level, officer rank, active-duty status, and a self-reported history of military exposures. Ever smokers, those with a history of chronic alcohol consumption or a major depressive disorder, and those separated from the military at follow-up had a lower probability of response. Nonresponse to the follow-up questionnaire did not result in appreciable bias; bias was greatest in subgroups with small numbers.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that prospective analyses from this cohort are not substantially biased by non-response at the first follow-up assessment.

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Therapy study, level IV.