Untangling the spatial and temporal processes that influence population dynamics of migratory species is challenging, because changes in abundance are shaped by variation in vital rates across heterogeneous habitats and throughout the annual cycle. We developed a full-annual-cycle, integrated, population model and used demographic data collected between 2011 and 2014 in southern Indiana and Belize to estimate stage-specific vital rates of a declining migratory songbird, the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). Our primary objective was to understand how spatial and temporal variation in demography contributes to local and regional population growth. Our full-annual-cycle model allowed us to estimate (1) age-specific, seasonal survival probabilities, including latent survival during both spring and autumn migration, and (2) how the relative contribution of vital rates to population growth differed among habitats. Wood Thrushes in our study populations experienced the lowest apparent survival rates during migration and apparent survival was lower during spring migration than during fall migration. Both mortality and high dispersal likely contributed to low apparent survival during spring migration. Population growth in high-quality habitat was most sensitive to variation in fecundity and apparent survival of juveniles during spring migration, whereas population growth in low-quality sites was most sensitive to adult apparent breeding-season survival. These results elucidate how full-annual-cycle vital rates, particularly apparent survival during migration, interact with spatial variation in habitat quality to influence population dynamics in migratory species.

Many migratory songbirds spend their non-breeding season in tropical humid forests, where climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of droughts and decrease rainfall. For conservation of these songbirds, it is critical to understand how resources during the non-breeding season are affected by seasonal patterns of drying, and thereby predict potential long-term effects of climate change. We studied habitat quality for a declining tropical forest-dwelling songbird, the wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and tested the hypothesis that habitat moisture and arthropod abundance are drivers of body condition during the overwintering period. We examined habitat moisture, abundance of arthropods and fruit, and condition of individual birds (n = 418) in three habitat types--mature forest, mature forest with increased presence of human activity, and riparian scrub--from October to April. We found a strong pattern of habitat drying from October (wet season) to March (prior to spring migration) in all habitats, with concurrent declines in arthropod and fruit abundance. Body condition of birds also declined (estimated ~5 % decline over the wintering period), with no significant difference by habitat. Relatively poor condition (low body condition index, low fat and pectoral muscles scores) was equally apparent in all habitat types in March. Climate change is predicted to increase the severity of dry seasons in Central America, and our results suggest that this could negatively affect the condition of individual wood thrushes.

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