Insulin resistance is a major risk factor for the development of NIDDM: A low acute insulin response to glucose is an additional but weaker risk factor.
Epidemiological studies have firmly established that obesity is a major risk factor for the development of Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus [1±4]. Obesity does not, however, invariably result in diabetes and many people who are very obese are able to maintain normal glucose tolerance. The reason why some people with obesity develop Type II diabetes and others do not is largely not known.There is good evidence that differences in body fat distribution play a part [3±9]. A large number of cross-sectional studies have shown that obese people with an abdominal pattern of fat accumulation are Diabetologia (2000) Abstract Aims/hypothesis. Cross-sectional studies indicate that enlarged subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size is associated with hyperinsulinaemia, insulin resistance and glucose intolerance. To further explore the pathophysiological significance of these associations, we examined prospectively whether enlarged subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size predicts Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus. Methods. Body composition (hydrodensitometry), mean subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size (fat biopsy), insulin sensitivity (hyperinsulinaemic clamp) and the acute insulin secretory response (25-g i. v. GTT) were assessed in 280 Pima Indians with either normal (NGT), impaired (IGT) or diabetic glucose tolerance (75-g OGTT). Subjects with NGT were then followed prospectively. Results. After adjusting for age, sex and per cent body fat, mean subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size was 19 % and 11 % higher in subjects with diabetes and IGT, compared with those with NGT (p < 0.001). Insulin sensitivity was inversely correlated with mean subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size (r = ±0.53, p < 0.0001), even after adjusting for per cent body fat (r = ±0.31, p < 0.001). In 108 NGT subjects followed over 9.3 4.1 years (33 of whom developed diabetes), enlarged mean subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size but not high per cent body fat, was an independent predictor of diabetes, in addition to a low insulin sensitivity and acute insulin secretory response [relative hazard 10 th vs 90 th centile (95 % CI): 5.8 (1.7±19.6), p < 0.005]. In 28 NGT subjects with a 9 % weight gain over 2.7 1.3 years, changes in insulin sensitivity were inversely and independently related to changes in mean subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size and per cent body fat. Conclusion/interpretation. Although enlarged mean subcutaneous abdominal adipocyte size is associated with insulin resistance cross-sectionally, prospectively, both abnormalities are independent and additive predictors of Type II diabetes. [Diabetologia (2000
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