No abstract

Enquist and Niklas propose that trees in natural forests have invariant size‐density distributions (SDDs) that scale as a −2 power of stem diameter, although early studies described such distributions using negative exponential functions. Using New Zealand and ‘global’ data sets, we demonstrate that neither type of function accurately describes the SDD over the entire diameter range. Instead, scaling functions provide the best fit to smaller stems, while negative exponential functions provide the best fit to larger stems. We argue that these patterns are consistent with competition shaping the small‐stem phase and exogenous disturbance shaping the large‐stem phase. Mortality rates, estimated from repeat measurements on 1546 New Zealand plots, fell precipitously with stem size until 18 cm but remained constant after that, consistent with our arguments. Even in the small‐stem phase, where SDDs were best described by scaling functions, the scaling exponents were not invariantly −2, but differed significantly from this value in both the ‘global’ and New Zealand data sets, and varied through time in the New Zealand data set.

A combination of methods, including mathematical model construction, demographic plus epidemiological data analysis and parameter estimation, are used to examine whether mass drug administration (MDA) alone can eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). Numerical analyses suggest that in all but low transmission settings (as defined by the magnitude of the basic reproductive number, R0), the treatment of pre-school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) is unlikely to drive transmission to a level where the parasites cannot persist. High levels of coverage (defined as the fraction of an age group effectively treated) are required in pre-SAC, SAC and adults, if MDA is to drive the parasite below the breakpoint under which transmission is eliminated. Long-term solutions to controlling helminth infections lie in concomitantly improving the quality of the water supply, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). MDA, however, is a very cost-effective tool in long-term control given that most drugs are donated free by the pharmaceutical industry for poor regions of the world. WASH interventions, by lowering the basic reproductive number, can facilitate the ability of MDA to interrupt transmission.

Current control strategies for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) emphasize morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA) targeting preschool- and school-age children, women of childbearing age and adults in certain high-risk occupations such as agricultural laborers or miners. This strategy is effective at reducing morbidity in those treated but, without massive economic development, it is unlikely it will interrupt transmission. MDA will therefore need to continue indefinitely to maintain benefit. Mathematical models suggest that transmission interruption may be achievable through MDA alone, provided that all age groups are targeted with high coverage. The DeWorm3 Project will test the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission using biannual MDA targeting all age groups. Study sites (population ≥80,000) have been identified in Benin, Malawi and India. Each site will be divided into 40 clusters, to be randomized 1:1 to three years of twice-annual community-wide MDA or standard-of-care MDA, typically annual school-based deworming. Community-wide MDA will be delivered door-to-door, while standard-of-care MDA will be delivered according to national guidelines. The primary outcome is transmission interruption of the STH species present at each site, defined as weighted cluster-level prevalence ≤2% by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), 24 months after the final round of MDA. Secondary outcomes include the endline prevalence of STH, overall and by species, and the endline prevalence of STH among children under five as an indicator of incident infections. Secondary analyses will identify cluster-level factors associated with transmission interruption. Prevalence will be assessed using qPCR of stool samples collected from a random sample of cluster residents at baseline, six months after the final round of MDA and 24 months post-MDA. A smaller number of individuals in each cluster will be followed with annual sampling to monitor trends in prevalence and reinfection throughout the trial.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03014167