ObjectiveIBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.DesignWe conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.ResultsIn total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn’s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 ‘missed’ cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a ‘true’ prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age.ConclusionsWe report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.

The combination of LSM ≤25 kPa and Pl ≥100 can be used in clinical practice to exclude the presence of high-risk GOV in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis.

Background and Aim: Ustekinumab is a monoclonal antibody that targets interleukin-12/23. In Scotland, it was approved for the treatment of moderate to severe Crohn's disease in 2017. The objective of this study was to establish the real-world effectiveness and safety of ustekinumab in the treatment of Crohn's disease. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of patients receiving ustekinumab across eight Scottish National Health Service health boards between 2017 and 2019. Inclusion criteria included a diagnosis of Crohn's disease with symptoms attributed to active disease plus objective signs of inflammation at baseline (C-reactive protein ≥ 5 mg/L or fecal calprotectin ≥ 250 μg/g or inflammation on endoscopy/magnetic resonance imaging) and completion of induction plus at least one clinical follow-up at 8 weeks. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to establish 12-month cumulative rates of clinical remission, mucosal healing, deep remission, and perianal fistula response. Rates of serious adverse events were described quantitatively. Results: Our cohort consisted of 216 patients (female sex, 37.9%; median age, 39.0 years, interquartile range [IQR] 28.8-51.8 years; disease duration, 9.9 years, IQR 6.0-16.5 years; prior biologic, 98.6%) with a median follow-up of 35.0 weeks (IQR 17.4-52.0 weeks). Twelve-month cumulative rates of clinical remission, mucosal healing, and deep remission (clinical remission plus mucosal healing) were 32.0%, 32.7%, and 19.3%, respectively. In patients with active perianal disease (n = 37), the 12-month cumulative perianal response rate was 53.1%. The serious adverse event rate was 13.6 per 100 patient-years of follow-up. Conclusion: Ustekinumab is a safe and effective treatment for the treatment of complex Crohn's disease.

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