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USACE’s IWR must responsibly manage its work packages through its Operations and Maintenance (O&M) annual budget. IWR has developed several models that use data to inform investment strategies for the prioritization of work packages; however, these strategies are based on old data and not predictive in nature. Because work package ranks significantly change when applying a Value Model and Monte Carlo simulation, this research focuses on the significance of a 3-year predictive budgeting model; a model which is enabled by the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, 2020). This research will demonstrate a forward-looking methodology using a Value to Consequence Ratio metric (VCR) for funding work packages through a decision support interface via Microsoft’s Power BI. This paper presents the framework for USACE’s Civil Works Navigation business line and creates the potential for future work to integrate other business lines utilizing System Dynamics.

Tradeoff decision making is a difficult problem in design, and even more so when designing for the product lifecycle. Tradeoffs must be made among a broader set of issues, including environmental impact. In addition, normative methods such as utility analysis can become more difficult to implement because of decision modeling issues. This paper presents formal, normative methods for overcoming these difficulties. The method includes a lifecycle analysis which reveals elements of the cellphone design that are most impactful on the environment. A baseline estimate of impacts provides insight into possible redesign options based on minimization of negative environmental impacts. The proposed method also employs a multiattribute utility copula approach, which can be useful when the condition of utility independence is not easily satisfied when formulating a multiattribute utility function. An example using the decision process for end of life (EOL) processing alternatives for cellphones illustrates the method. The extraction of sub-assemblies was determined to be the best decision alternative to recapture value at the disposal stage of the product lifecycle. The copula structure is shown to be effective in analyzing a firm’s tradeoff preferences as well as attribute valuation, providing a straightforward tool for tradeoff decision making.

USACE Institute for Water Resources (IWR) supplies forward-looking research and analysis to the Civil Works program. IWR investigates navigation of inland waterways across the United States and collects data. The data produced by the Navigation Investment Model (NIM) is not extensively used as an institutionally accepted norm to facilitate evaluation and decision making of infrastructure work packages. This research will present a new method for assessing work packages using a Utility to the Region and Nation (U2RN) metric which complements existing heuristic approaches with predictive data analysis techniques. Application of the new methodology will show how prioritization of work packages would significantly change when using data, and when applying a Monte Carlo simulation to determine future states. This paper provides a framework for waterborne investment that can be applied to the entire inland waterway and deep-sea infrastructure.