Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770–780 and 990–1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed.
Episodic outbreaks of pandora moth (Coloradia pandora Blake), a forest insect that defoliates ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) and other pine species in the western United States, have recurred several times during the 20th century in forests of south-central Oregon. We collected and analyzed tree-ring samples from stands affected by recent outbreaks of pandora moth to develop a long-term record of outbreaks. Outbreaks were evident in tree-ring series as a characteristic ''signature'' of sharply reduced latewood width within a ring, followed by reduced ring widths lasting 4-20 yr. We verified that this tree-ring signature was unrelated to drought or other climatic fluctuations by comparing the timing of known and inferred outbreaks with independent climatic data. Using the pandora moth tree-ring signature, we reconstructed a 622-year record of 22 individual outbreaks in 14 old-growth ponderosa pine stands. This is currently the longest regional reconstruction of forest insect outbreak history in North America. Intervals between pandora moth outbreaks were highly variable within individual forest stands, ranging from 9 yr to 156 yr. Spectral analyses of a composite time series from all stands, however, showed more consistent intervals between outbreaks, suggesting quasicyclical population dynamics at regional and decadal scales. Waveforms extracted from the regional outbreak time series had periods ranging over ϳ18-24 yr (39.7% variance explained) and ϳ37-41 yr (37.3% variance explained). The periods and strengths of these cycles varied across the centuries, with the largest outbreaks occurring when relatively high-amplitude periods of the dominant cycles were in phase. Twentieth-century outbreaks were not more synchronous (extensive), severe, or longer in duration than outbreaks in previous centuries, but there was an unusual 60-yr reduction in regional activity during ϳ1920-1980. The changing dynamical behavior of pandora moth populations highlights the need to evaluate historical factors that may have influenced this system, such as climatic variations, forest fires, and human land uses. Although cyclical dynamics in animal populations have most commonly been attributed to endogenous, ecological processes (e.g., ''delayed density dependence,'' predators, pathogens, and parasites) our findings suggest that exogenous processes (e.g., climatic oscillations) may also be involved.
High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree-ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth-increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high-frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low-frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal-scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real-world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth-increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments.
Using dendrochronological analyses, we reconstructed a 300 year history of eastern spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks in northern interior Maine. By analyzing radial growth patterns from the budworm host, red spruce ( Picea rubens Sarg.), and nonhost, northern white cedar ( Thuja occidentalis L.), we identified five outbreaks beginning ca. 1709, 1762, 1808, 1914, and 1976, all of which have been documented from eastern Canada. However, little or no evidence was found in our study for the 1830s, 1870s, or 1940s outbreaks also documented there. The mean outbreak return interval in our study (67 years) was roughly twice that postulated for eastern Canada. Differences in forest types, and associated stand dynamics, between the regions may explain the longer return intervals, and consequently the absence of these three outbreaks in Maine. Results also indicate that small, slow-growing trees exhibit a budworm signal very similar to that of overstory trees, once tree-ring series have been properly standardized.
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