Nest survival is one of the most important parameters in the population dynamics of grassland‐nesting ducks (Anas and Aythya spp.) that breed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Grassland habitats used by these species are increasingly threatened by habitat loss and the coincident fragmentation, which may indirectly alter nest survival through effects on predators. Although predators are the dominant cause of nest loss, they are difficult to monitor directly. Thus, indirect analyses of habitat variables are required. Many studies have attempted to address the relationship between fragmentation and nest survival; however, few studies have examined the influence of fragmentation at multiple spatial scales. Understanding how landscape characteristics at multiple spatial scales explain variation in nest survival is important, because no single correct scale is likely to exist for a diversity of landscape metrics. We examined the relationships between habitat variables and duck nest survival (n ≈ 4200 nests) on 18 10.4‐km2 sites selected across a gradient of landscape characteristics in the Missouri Coteau Region of North Dakota. We evaluated both a priori and exploratory competing models of nest survival that considered habitat features measured at nest sites, within nesting patches, and at multiple landscape scales. We used generalized nonlinear mixed‐modeling techniques to model nest survival rates. Information‐theoretic techniques were used to select among competing models. Models that included covariates measured at multiple landscape scales were better than simpler models that included only covariates measured at a single spatial scale. Landscape covariates measured at 10.4 and 41.4 km2 resulted in the best explanation of nest survival. Nest survival was positively related to the amount of grassland habitat, negatively related to the wetland density, and related to the amount of grassland edge in a quadratic manner, with the lowest nest survival at intermediate values of grassland edge. Future research should attempt to determine the causes of these relationships, something we were unable to do with our correlative approach. Conservation efforts focused on maintaining duck populations should seek to maintain landscapes with abundant grassland and to account for the influence of configuration using GIS analyses.

Native grasslands that support diverse populations of birds are being converted to cropland at an increasing rate in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Although limited funding is currently available to mitigate losses, accurate predictions of probability of conversion would increase the efficiency of conservation measures. We studied conversion of native grassland to cropland in the Missouri Coteau region of North and South Dakota (U.S.A.) during 1989-2003. We estimated the probability of conversion of native grassland to cropland with satellite imagery and logistic regression models that predicted risk of conversion and by comparing the overlap between areas of high biological value and areas most vulnerable to conversion. Annualized probability of conversion was 0.004, and 36,540 ha of native grassland were converted to cropland during the period of our study. Our predictive models fit the data and correctly predicted 70% of observed conversions of grassland. Probability of conversion varied spatially and was correlated with landscape features like amount of surrounding grassland, slope, and soil productivity. Tracts of high biological value were not always at high risk of conversion. We concluded the most biologically valuable areas that are most vulnerable to conversion should be prioritized for conservation. This approach can be applied broadly to other systems and offers great utility for implementing conservation in areas with spatially variable biological value and probability of conversion.

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the primary breeding region for most species of North American dabbling ducks (Anas spp.). Conservation of these species is guided in part by knowledge of relationships between nest survival probability and habitat features. Positive relationships between duck nest survival and amount and configuration of herbaceous perennial vegetation have been observed in previous studies, but these 2- to 4-year studies might not have adequately characterized the temporal effect of wet-dry episodes on nest survival. Over an eight-year period, we studied nest survival of five species of ducks in the PPR relative to spatial and temporal variation in pond density, primary productivity, and hydrologic status of wetlands, soil, and vegetation on 52 study sites selected to span a gradient of spatial variation in proportion of herbaceous perennial vegetation and in number of wetland basins. We observed the fate of 12 754 nests. Consistent with past studies, 90% of nests that failed to hatch were destroyed by predators. Nest survival probability was positively related to current-year pond density and primary productivity, negatively related to pond density and primary productivity during the previous two years, and positively related to the number of wetland basins on the study site. Predicted relationships between nest survival and proportion or configuration of herbaceous perennial vegetation in the surrounding landscape were not supported. For mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), median estimated nest survival probability ranged from 0.02 (SE = 0.01) to 0.22 (SE = 0.02). Estimated nest survival was greatest on sites with numerous wetland basins that had transitioned from dry, unproductive conditions to wet, productive conditions in the previous 1-2 years. Our results were consistent with time-lagged responses of food webs to resource pulses in a broad array of ecosystems. Our study highlighted the importance of wetland basins and wet-dry episodes to duck nest survival in the PPR. Current habitat conservation efforts focus on landscapes with numerous wetland basins and a high proportion of herbaceous perennial vegetation. Our results suggest that future conservation efforts should focus on preserving high-density wetland complexes across as large a geographic extent as possible even in cropland-dominated landscapes.

Conservation programs for breeding ducks in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States and Canada require effective means of evaluating and characterizing breeding habitat across large landscapes. Extensive surveys of the distribution of duck broods in late-summer could help identify wetland basins with greater probabilities of occupancy. Broods are difficult to detect, however, rendering presenceabsence data from single-visit surveys difficult to interpret, particularly when probability of detection is related to habitat features. Multiple-visit occupancy surveys offer a potential solution. From we conducted a 3-visit survey of wetland basins located on 167 10.4-km 2 study plots in the PPR. Our survey focused on broods of the 5 most common breeding duck species (Anas spp.). Our main objectives were to investigate ecological relationships between occupancy of wetland basins by broods and habitat characteristics and to examine if habitat-specific detection was of enough concern to warrant multisurvey approaches in the future. We surveyed 3,226 wetland basins during the study. Probability of occupancy of a wetland basin by a brood was positively related to the log of wet area for all 5 study species and was greater on wetlands located on plots with a greater proportion of herbaceous perennial cover for 4 of 5 species. For example, the median probability of occupancy for gadwall (Anas strepera) increased from 0.08 (90% Credible Interval [CrI]: 0.07, 0.10) to 0.28 (90% CrI: 0.23, 0.33) as wet area increased from 0.19 ha to 2.12 ha, and increased from 0.12 (90% CrI: 0.09, 0.16) to 0.20 (90% CrI: 0.16, 0.25) as proportion of perennial grass cover on the study plot increased from 0.03 to 0.99. Because occupancy and detection were both related to attributes of wetland basins, we concluded that the multiple-visit survey was a useful approach for identifying habitat relationships of duck broods. Our results indicated that most broods of the study species were found in 10.4-km 2 landscapes with greater densities of small-to mid-sized wetland basins and a greater proportion of herbaceous perennial vegetation. Our study provided new empirical support that could be used to help target conservation actions to the most productive landscapes for breeding ducks. ß 2012 The Wildlife Society.

In the final decades of the nineteenth century, concern was building about the status of migratory bird populations in North America. In this literature review, we describe how that concern led to a landmark conservation agreement in 1916, between the United States and Great Britain (on behalf of Canada) to conserve migratory birds shared by Canada and the United States. Drawing on published literature and our personal experience, we describe how subsequent enabling acts in both countries gave rise to efforts to better estimate population sizes and distributions, assess harvest rates and demographic impacts, design and fund landscape-level habitat conservation initiatives, and organize necessary political and regulatory processes. Executing these steps required large-scale thinking, unprecedented regional and international cooperation, ingenuity, and a commitment to scientific rigor and adaptive management. We applaud the conservation efforts begun 100 years ago with the Migratory Bird Treaty Convention. The agreement helped build the field of wildlife ecology and conservation in the twentieth century but only partially prepares us for the ecological and social challenges ahead. Ó 2017 The Wildlife Society.