We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial ( approximately 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed approximately 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.

Understanding the evolutionary processes that generate and sustain diversity in tropical faunas has challenged biologists for over a century and should underpin conservation strategies. Molecular studies of diversity within species and relationships among species, when integrated with more traditional approaches of biogeography and paleoecology, have much to contribute to this challenge. Here we outline the current major hypotheses, develop predictions relevant to integrated molecular approaches, and evaluate the current evidence, focusing on central African, Australian, and South American systems. The available data are sparse relative to the scale of the questions. However, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) in most cases, the divergence of extant sister taxa predates the Pleistocene; (b) areas with high habitat heterogeneity and recent climatic or geological instability appear to harbor more species of recent origin; (c) there is support for both allopatric and gradient models of diversification and more attention should be given to the role of diversifying selection regardless of geographic context; and (d) conservation strategies should seek to protect heterogeneous landscapes within and adjacent to large rainforest areas, rather than rainforests alone. SCOPE AND ISSUES The search for the basis of high species diversity in tropical forests has occupied biologists for over a century (91, 115, 143, 151). What biologists seek to understand is how there come to be so many species in a single place (alpha diversity) and so much turnover of species between habitats (beta diversity) and