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The General ApproachPolicymaking within subsystems in the United States is dominated by a process alternating between periods of relative gridlock and periods of dramatic change (Baumgartner and Jones 1993). Such punctuated equilibria seem characteristic of many complex systems. They are evident in the evolution of species (Eldredge 1985), in economics, when new technologies disrupt prevailing patterns of doing business (Thurow 1996), and in computer simulations of iterated games (Lindgren 1992). These punctuations interspersed with periods of stasis may have both exogenous and endogenous causes. Complex interactions among Policy Punctuations 3 tively divide the postwar period into three epochs, which seem to correspond to widely shared, but dramatically different, conceptions of the proper role of government during these three periods.We test our finding of two large-scale punctuations against three plausible rival hypotheses. The first is that the epochs are in fact simply reflective of changes in the robustness of the postwar economy. In good times, more is spent; in lean times, less. Second, we study the hypothesis that spending eras reflect partisan divisions. When Democrats control both the executive and legislative branches, they increase the size of gove...
