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Countries around the world are devising and implementing bioeconomy strategies to initiate transformation towards sustainable futures. Modern concepts of bioeconomy extend beyond bio-based energy provision and include: (1) the substitution of fossil resource-based inputs to various productive sectors, such as the chemical industry and the construction sector, (2) more efficient, including new and cascading uses of biomass, and (3) a low bulk, but high-value biologisation of processes in agro-food, pharmaceutical, and recycling industries. Outcomes of past attempts at engineering transformation, however, proved to be context-dependent and contingent on appropriate governance measures. In this paper we theoretically motivate and apply a system-level theory of change framework that identifies central mechanisms and four distinct pathways, through which bio-based transformation can generate positive or negative outcomes in multiple domains of the Sustainable Development Goals. Based on emblematic examples from three bio-based sectors, we apply the framework illustrating how case-specific mixes of transformation pathways emerge and translate into outcomes. We find that the observed mixes of transformation pathways evoke distinct mechanisms that link bioeconomic change to sustainability gains and losses. Based on this insight we derive four key lessons that can help to inform the design of strategies to enable and regulate sustainable bioeconomies.

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A national-scale simulation-optimization model was created to generate estimates of economic impacts associated with changes in water supply and demand as influenced by climate change. Water balances were modeled for the 99 assessment sub-regions, and are presented for 18 water resource regions in the United States. Benefit functions are developed for irrigated agriculture, municipal and domestic water use, commercial and industrial water use, and hydroelectric power generation. Environmental flows below minimal levels required for environmental needs are assessed a penalty. As a demonstration of concept for the model, future climate is projected using a climate model ensemble for two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in which no new GHG controls are implemented, and an exemplary mitigation policy (POL) scenario in which future GHG emissions are mitigated. Damages are projected to grow less during the 21st century under the POL scenario than the BAU scenario. The largest impacts from climate change are projected to be on non-consumptive uses (e.g., environmental flows and hydropower) and relatively lower-valued consumptive uses (e.g., agriculture), as water is reallocated during reduced water availability conditions to supply domestic, commercial, and industrial uses with higher marginal values. Lower GHG concentrations associated with a mitigation policy will result in a smaller rise in temperature and thus less extensive damage to some water resource uses. However, hydropower, environmental flow penalty, and agriculture were shown to be sensitive to the change in runoff as well.