Pneumonia remains a major cause of child death globally, and improving antibiotic treatment rates is a key control strategy. Progress in improving the global coverage of antibiotic treatment is monitored through large household surveys such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), which estimate antibiotic treatment rates of pneumonia based on two-week recall of pneumonia by caregivers. However, these survey tools identify children with reported symptoms of pneumonia, and because the prevalence of pneumonia over a two-week period in community settings is low, the majority of these children do not have true pneumonia and so do not provide an accurate denominator of pneumonia cases for monitoring antibiotic treatment rates. In this review, we show that the performance of survey tools could be improved by increasing the survey recall period or by improving either overall discriminative power or specificity. However, even at a test specificity of 95% (and a test sensitivity of 80%), the proportion of children with reported symptoms of pneumonia who truly have pneumonia is only 22% (the positive predictive value of the survey tool). Thus, although DHS and MICS survey data on rates of care seeking for children with reported symptoms of pneumonia and other childhood illnesses remain valid and important, DHS and MICS data are not able to give valid estimates of antibiotic treatment rates in children with pneumonia.

Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a frequent cause of hospitalization with long-term health consequences, including type 3c diabetes mellitus (DM). The incidence and risk factors for new-onset morbidities after AP need to be clarified to inform a personalized medicine approach. Methods Using a longitudinal electronic healthcare record-linkage analysis, all patients admitted to hospital in Scotland with a first episode of AP between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2012 and followed for a minimum of 5 years after their index AP admission were identified. All new-onset morbidity with specific focus on type 3c DM were analysed and, using time-split multiple regression. Results A total of 2047 patients were included. AP requiring critical care was followed by 2 years of heightened risk (HR 5.24) of developing type 3c DM, increased risk of new-onset cardiac disease (HR 1.61), and renal disease (HR 2.96). The additional risk conferred by critical care AP had a negative interaction with time, whereas additional risk associated with male sex and a non-gallstone aetiology was long lasting. Conclusion Based on these findings, a personalized approach to include type 3c DM screening for a minimum of 2 years for individuals who required critical care when hospitalized with AP is recommended.

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