Justifications for the development of special correctional programs and for the choice of sentencing disposition for an individual offender are frequently based on claims of greater rehabilitative efficacy. While considerable evidence exists that some types of offenders have relatively more or less likelihood of recidivism than others , there is , as yet , almost no evidence that available correctional alternatives have any impact on those likelihoods. The article reviews findings from studies of correction in California for five critical choices in offender processing : (1) imprisonment or probation , (2) length of stay in prison , (3) treatment program in prison , (4) intensity of parole or probation supervision , and (5) outright discharge from prison or release on parole. The authors conclude that variations in recidivism rates among these alternatives are , for the most part , attributable to initial differences among the types of offenders processed and that the remaining differences in violation rate between programs may be accounted for by differences in interpreting an event as a violation or in officially designating it as such. No evidence was found to support claims of superior rehabilitative efficacy of one correctional alternative over another. Research into the correctional system has been concerned with answering these five basic questions about the behavior of convicted persons 3 California Legislature, "Analysis of the Budget Bill of the State of California for the Fiscal Year July 1, 1968, to June 30, 1969," 1969.

The prediction of violence in offender populations has long been a dream of correctional decision-makers. The possibility of identifying those individuals who will engage in violent behavior in the future offers the prospect of treatment interventions to reduce such violence. Using elaborate case histories, current measures of mental and emotional functioning, and professional prognoses for a sample of 4,146 California Youth Authority wards, the present study sought to develop a classification device for estimating assaultive potential with sufficient accuracy to be useful in correctional program decisions. Simple classification procedures and multivariate approaches failed to yield an operationally practical prediction instrument that would warrant implementation in actual preventive or correctional practice. Much of the violent behavior we would wish to predict will probably never come to our attention and the part that does will be far from a representative sample. The prediction equations themselves contain the seed of self-fulfilling prophecy.~ ~*

University of MichiganOne important aspect of parole recidivism rates is the parole agent's designation of the client as a "success" or a "failure." This means that recidivism is not totally an attribute of the client but that it represents, in part, a judgment by the worker. This paper examines parole agent responses to ten hypothetical case histories of parolees and the factors that influence these responses.ONE NOTION underlying current re-