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In this paper we present the first results of a study that aims to better understand and model the size and development of population in the Dutch Roman limes zone, as part of a larger research project investigating the development of the cultural landscape in the area. Earlier estimates of population size have only used general assumptions based on settlement density and supposed Roman army recruitment requirements and have not considered in any detail the factors influencing population growth and decline. This paper first presents the existing evidence for estimating population size in the area and then discusses the evidence for mortality and fertility estimates in the Roman period, necessary to better understand the large-scale demographic processes involved. From this evidence, new estimates for population size in the Early and Middle Roman period are calculated, using agent-based modelling to better understand the dynamics of population growth and the effects of recruitment of soldiers by the Roman army. It is concluded that earlier calculations underestimated the potential for population growth as well as the effect of forced recruitment on demography.

The Dutch Roman limes zone has a rich history of archaeological and historical research. In this paper, we present an overview of the current state of knowledge as an introduction to other chapters in this volume dealing with the area's demography, economy and transport system (Chaps. 2, 3, 7, 9 and 12). The main historical developments are sketched against the background of ongoing archaeological research in the area, and the main hypotheses concerning the development of settlement and the rural economy are discussed.

This study forms part of a larger project analysing the development of the cultural landscape in the Dutch Roman limes region, including the development of the rural economy. The primary research aim in this study is to investigate changes in pastoral production as a result of differing population dynamics of sheep and cattle herds subjected to different animal husbandry practices. Differences between such practices have not been considered in previous models of pastoral production in the region where herds have been treated as static entities. In this study we simulated different animal husbandry strategies based on trends and developments inferred from the faunal record in a well-documented area of the limes zone. The results of these simulations were analysed for differences in population viability, as well as relative differences in production of meat, wool and manure, and relative requirements for pastureland requirements and labour. Our analysis shows that cattle and sheep herds exploited for products supplied by the animals whilst living (manure and traction from cattle, wool from sheep) exhibit higher growth rates than herds exploited for meat. In addition, they are able to supply larger quantities of calories. However these herds have higher requirements for labour and land, presenting a possibly limiting factor. We conclude that, in addition to complementing intensification and extensification of arable farming observed in the region, agriculturalists would have benefitted from herds with higher growth rates, particularly given their risk-aversion behavior during periods of economic uncertainty. These simulations will be subsequently used to produce more nuanced scenarios of pastoral production within agent-based modelling of the mixed rural economy in the Dutch Roman limes zone.

This chapter presents an agent-based model developed to investigate the impact on land and labour costs of different agricultural strategies that could have been undertaken in the Early and Middle Roman periods (12 BCE to 270 CE) in the Lower Rhine delta. A short description of the sub-processes in ROMFARMS to simulate settlement population dynamics, arable farming, animal husbandry and wood acquisition is provided. The results show that settlements in the Dutch limes zone during the Roman period were mostly limited by the relatively small labour pool available. Whilst not prevented outright by the availability of labour, the results show that only a small proportion of the total quantity of grain demanded by to military settlements, towns and vici can be supplied by local settlements. Two different possible scales of supply were envisaged with the results indicating that a macroregional supply network was more feasible in which all settlements in the Lower Rhine delta were involved in the supply of consumer-only settlements. Whilst several methodological issues were noted, ROMFARMS is presented as an innovative tool for Dutch Roman archaeology with good potential for further development.