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SummaryBackgroundDespite remarkable progress in the improvement of child survival between 1990 and 2015, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 target of a two-thirds reduction of under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) was not achieved globally. In this paper, we updated our annual estimates of child mortality by cause to 2000–15 to reflect on progress toward the MDG 4 and consider implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target for child survival.MethodsWe increased the estimation input data for causes of deaths by 43% among neonates and 23% among 1–59-month-olds, respectively. We used adequate vital registration (VR) data where available, and modelled cause-specific mortality fractions applying multinomial logistic regressions using adequate VR for low U5MR countries and verbal autopsy data for high U5MR countries. We updated the estimation to use Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate in place of malaria index in the modelling of malaria deaths; to use adjusted empirical estimates instead of modelled estimates for China; and to consider the effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and rotavirus vaccine in the estimation.FindingsIn 2015, among the 5·9 million under-5 deaths, 2·7 million occurred in the neonatal period. The leading under-5 causes were preterm birth complications (1·055 million [95% uncertainty range (UR) 0·935–1·179]), pneumonia (0·921 million [0·812 −1·117]), and intrapartum-related events (0·691 million [0·598 −0·778]). In the two MDG regions with the most under-5 deaths, the leading cause was pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa and preterm birth complications in southern Asia. Reductions in mortality rates for pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal intrapartum-related events, malaria, and measles were responsible for 61% of the total reduction of 35 per 1000 livebirths in U5MR in 2000–15. Stratified by U5MR, pneumonia was the leading cause in countries with very high U5MR. Preterm birth complications and pneumonia were both important in high, medium high, and medium child mortality countries; whereas congenital abnormalities was the most important cause in countries with low and very low U5MR.InterpretationIn the SDG era, countries are advised to prioritise child survival policy and programmes based on their child cause-of-death composition. Continued and enhanced efforts to scale up proven life-saving interventions are needed to achieve the SDG child survival target.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

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Summary Background Causes of mortality are a crucial input for health systems for identifying appropriate interventions for child survival. We present an updated series of cause-specific mortality for neonates and children younger than 5 years from 2000 to 2019. Methods We updated cause-specific mortality estimates for neonates and children aged 1–59 months, stratified by level (low, moderate, or high) of mortality. We made a substantial change in the statistical methods used for previous estimates, transitioning to a Bayesian framework that includes a structure to account for unreported causes in verbal autopsy studies. We also used systematic covariate selection in the multinomial framework, gave more weight to nationally representative verbal autopsy studies using a random effects model, and included mortality due to tuberculosis. Findings In 2019, there were 5·30 million deaths (95% uncertainty range 4·92–5·68) among children younger than 5 years, primarily due to preterm birth complications (17·7%, 16·1–19·5), lower respiratory infections (13·9%, 12·0–15·1), intrapartum-related events (11·6%, 10·6–12·5), and diarrhoea (9·1%, 7·9–9·9), with 49·2% (47·3–51·9) due to infectious causes. Vaccine-preventable deaths, such as for lower respiratory infections, meningitis, and measles, constituted 21·7% (20·4–25·6) of under-5 deaths, and many other causes, such as diarrhoea, were preventable with low-cost interventions. Under-5 mortality has declined substantially since 2000, primarily because of a decrease in mortality due to lower respiratory infections, diarrhoea, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, malaria, and measles. There is considerable variation in the extent and trends in cause-specific mortality across regions and for different strata of all-cause under-5 mortality. Interpretation Progress is needed to improve child health and end preventable deaths among children younger than 5 years. Countries should strategize how to reduce mortality among this age group using interventions that are relevant to their specific causes of death. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; WHO.

Objective. This analysis determines the importance of geography and spatial behavior as predisposing and enabling factors in rural health care utilization, controlling for demographic, social, cultural, and health status factors. Data Sources. A survey of 1,059 adults in 12 rural Appalachian North Carolina counties. Study Design. This cross-sectional study used a three-stage sampling design stratified by county and ethnicity. Preliminary analysis of health services utilization compared weighted proportions of number of health care visits in the previous 12 months for regular check-up care, chronic care, and acute care across geographic, sociodemographic, cultural, and health variables. Multivariable logistic models identified independent correlates of health services utilization. Data Collection Methods. Respondents answered standard survey questions. They located places in which they engaged health related and normal day-to-day activities; these data were entered into a geographic information system for analysis. Principal Findings. Several geographic and spatial behavior factors, including having a driver's license, use of provided rides, and distance for regular care, were significantly related to health care utilization for regular check-up and chronic care in the bivariate analysis. In the multivariate model, having a driver's license and distance for regular care remained significant, as did several predisposing (age, gender, ethnicity), enabling (household income), and need (physical and mental health measures, number of conditions). Geographic measures, as predisposing and enabling factors, were related to regular check-up and chronic care, but not to acute care visits. Conclusions. These results show the importance of geographic and spatial behavior factors in rural health care utilization. They also indicate continuing inequity in rural health care utilization that must be addressed in public policy.