Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible.

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Literature from the developed world suggests that poor housing conditions and housing environments contribute to poor mental health outcomes, although research results are mixed. This study investigates the relationship between housing conditions and the socio-emotional health of orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) in South Africa. The results of the study are mainly inconclusive, although it is suggested that methodological considerations play a vital role in explaining the mixed results. However, a positive relationship was found between living in informal settlements and better socio-emotional health of the OVC. We speculate that the historical context of informal settlement formation in South Africa helps to explain this unexpected result.