Predictions of wind power production for horizons up to 48–72 h ahead comprise a highly valuable input to the methods for the daily management or trading of wind generation. Today, users of wind power predictions are not only provided with point predictions, which are estimates of the conditional expectation of the wind generation for each look‐ahead time, but also with uncertainty estimates given by probabilistic forecasts. In order to avoid assumptions on the shape of predictive distributions, these probabilistic predictions are produced from non‐parametric methods, and then take the form of a single or a set of quantile forecasts. The required and desirable properties of such probabilistic forecasts are defined and a framework for their evaluation is proposed. This framework is applied for evaluating the quality of two statistical methods producing full predictive distributions from point predictions of wind power. These distributions are defined by a number of quantile forecasts with nominal proportions spanning the unit interval. The relevance and interest of the introduced evaluation framework are discussed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

OBJECTIVEThis cross-sectional clinical study compared the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes in Japanese and Caucasians and investigated the role of demographic, genetic, and lifestyle-related risk factors for insulin resistance and b-cell response. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSA total of 120 Japanese and 150 Caucasians were enrolled to obtain comparable distributions of high/low BMI values across glucose tolerance states (normal glucose tolerance, impaired glucose tolerance, and type 2 diabetes), which were assessed by oral glucose tolerance tests. BMI in the two cohorts was distributed around the two regional cutoff values for obesity. RESULTSInsulin sensitivity was higher in Japanese compared with Caucasians, as indicated by the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance and Matsuda indices, whereas b-cell response was higher in Caucasians, as measured by homeostatic model assessment of b-cell function, the insulinogenic indices, and insulin secretion ratios. Disposition indices were similar for Japanese and Caucasians at all glucose tolerance states, indicating similar b-cell response relative to the degree of insulin resistance. The main determinants for differences in metabolic indices were measures of body composition, such as BMI and distribution of adipose tissue. Differences in b-cell response between Japanese and Caucasians were not statistically significant following adjustment by differences in BMI. CONCLUSIONSOur study showed similar disposition indices in Japanese and Caucasians and that the major part of the differences in insulin sensitivity and b-cell response between Japanese and Caucasians can be explained by differences in body composition.

Background: This observational study investigated whether the connected NovoPen Ò 6 could influence insulin regimen management and glycemic control in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) using a basal-bolus insulin regimen and continuous glucose monitoring in a real-world setting. Methods: Participants from 12 Swedish diabetes clinics downloaded pen data at each visit (final cohort: n = 94). Outcomes included time in range (TIR; sensor glucose 3.9-10.0 mmol/L), time in hyperglycemia (>10 mmol/L), and hypoglycemia (L1: 3.0-<3.9 mmol/L; L2: <3.0 mmol/L). Missed bolus dose (MBD) injections were meals without bolus injection within -15 and +60 min from the start of a meal. Outcomes were compared between the baseline and follow-up periods ( ‡5 health care professional visits). Data were analyzed from the first 14 days following each visit. For the TIR and total insulin dose analyses (n = 94), a linear mixed model was used, and for the MBD analysis (n = 81), a mixed Poisson model was used. Results: TIR significantly increased (+1.9 [0.8; 3.0] 95% CI h/day; P < 0.001) from baseline to follow-up period, with a corresponding reduction in time in hyperglycemia (-1.8 [-3.0; -0.6] 95% CI h/day; P = 0.003) and L2 hypoglycemia (-0.3 [-0.6; -0.1] 95% CI h/day; P = 0.005), and no change in time in L1 hypoglycemia. MBD injections decreased by 43% over the study (P = 0.002). Change in MBD injections corresponded to a decrease from 25% to 14% based on the assumption that participants had three main meals per day. Conclusions: Our study highlights the potential benefit on glycemic control and dosing behavior when reliable insulin dose data from a connected pen contribute to insulin management in people with T1D.

Previous studies have suggested that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) (7-36 amide) may have the direct effect of increasing insulin sensitivity in healthy man. To evaluate this hypothesis we infused GLP-1 in seven lean healthy men during a hyper insulinaemic (0.8 mU.kg-1.min-1), euglycaemic (5 mmol/l) clamp. Somatostatin (450 micrograms/h was infused to suppress endogenous insulin secretion, and growth hormone (3 ng.kg-1.min-1) and glucagon (0.8 ng.kg-1.min-1) were infused to maintain basal levels. GLP-1 (50 pmol.kg-1.h-1) or 154 mmol/l NaCl (placebo) was infused after 3 h of equilibration, i.e. from 180-360 min. GLP-1 infusion resulted in GLP-1 levels of approximately 40 pmol/l. Plasma glucose, insulin, growth hormone, and glucagon levels were similar throughout the clamps. The rate of glucose infusion required to maintain euglycaemia was similar with or without GLP-1 infusion (7.69 +/- 1.17 vs 7.76 +/- 0.95 mg kg-1.min-1 at 150-180 min and 8.56 +/- 1.13 vs 8.55 +/- 0.68 mg.kg-1.min-1 at 330-360 min) and there was no difference in isotopically determined hepatic glucose production rates (-0.30 +/- 0.23 vs -0.16 +/- 0.22 mg.kg-1.min-1 at 330-360 min). Furthermore, arteriovenous glucose differences across the forearm were similar with or without GLP-1 infusion (1.43 +/- 0.23 vs 1.8 +/- 0.29 mmol/l), (ANOVA; p > 0.60, in all instances). In conclusion, GLP-1 (7-36 amide) administered for 3 h, leading to circulating levels within the physiological range, does not affect insulin sensitivity in healthy man.

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