This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.Buoyant oil prices have allowed oil-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA OPCs) to increase oil exports and fiscal revenues, providing them with resources necessary to address the pressing social needs. To preclude another boom-bust cycle, this paper advocates the definition of a fiscal benchmark anchored in sustainability grounds, following Leigh-Olters (2006). The difference between current primary deficits and those that could be maintained after oil reserves are exhausted represent an indication of the degree to which fiscal positions will have to be adjusted-either gradually, while the overall balances remain in surplus, or abruptly, once oil revenues begin to dwindle.
Résumé Il y a soixante ans, Kalecki (1943) introduisait dans les sciences économiques le concept du cycle conjoncturel politique, en insistant sur le fait que l’individualisme économique influençait non seulement le comportement politique de chaque individu mais aussi la croissance économique globale. Depuis lors, une littérature étendue, remarquablement hétérogène, s’est développée. En s’unifiant, elle a favorisé, tout d’abord, l’émergence d’une analyse interdisciplinaire des problèmes économiques et des questions de redistribution de richesse et a permis, par la suite, d’intégrer la branche « non-marchande » de l’économie politique au reste de la discipline. En faisant l’examen critique des notions acquises par les économistes depuis lors, cet article place dans un contexte plus large ces innovations récentes de la recherche qui sont reprises de l’analyse kaleckienne, selon laquelle les conflits personnels sont la principale explication du comportement politique et de la croissance économique — en laissant prévoir le développement d’une théorie économique « positive » de la politique, qui devrait intégrer pleinement les décisions des électeurs, des partis politiques et des gouvernements à celles des consommateurs et des entreprises.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMP policy. Working Papers describe research in DrOl!TeSS bV the author(s) and are Dublished to elicit comments and to further debate.Whereas the economics discipline possesses a highly refined theoretical apparatus to analyze the effects of government behavior on the economy, it has not (yet) managed to fully develop a positively fonnulated "economic theory of politics" that would permit the integration of the decision-making processes of voters, parties, and governments with those of consumers and finns, Considerable recent advances notwithstanding, the large and heterogeneous body of literature has (so far) remained outside the economic mainstream. This paper surveys the main approaches used to endogenize democratic elements and assesses the underlying reasons for researchers' renewed interest in this field.
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