Ticks of the Amblyomma cajennense species complex are important vectors of spotted fever in Latin America. Environmental conditions determine the geographic distribution of ticks, such that climate change could influence the distribution of tick-borne diseases. This study aimed to analyze the potential geographic distribution of A. cajennense complex ticks in a Brazil region under present-day and future climate models, assuming dispersal limitations and non-evolutionary adaptation of these tick populations to climate warming. Records of A. cajennense sensu stricto (s.s.) and Amblyomma sculptum were analyzed. Niche models were calibrated using Maxent considering climate variables for 1950-2000 and projecting models to conditions anticipated for 2050 and 2070 under two models of future climate (CCSM4 and HadGEM2-AO). Broad suitable areas for A. cajennense s.s. and A. sculptum were found in present-day climate models, but suitability was reduced when models were projected to future conditions. Our exploration of future climates showed that broad areas had novel climates not existing currently in the study region, including novel extremely high temperatures. Indeed, predicted suitability in these novel conditions would lead to biologically unrealistic results and therefore incorrect forecasts of future tick-distribution. Previous studies anticipating expansions of vectors populations due to climate change should be considered with caution as they assume that model extrapolation anticipates that species would evolve rapidly for adaptation to novel climatic conditions.
INTRODUÇÃO: Populações de Triatoma sordida Stål, 1859 foram investigadas quanto à suscetibilidade à deltametrina. MÉTODOS: Análise por meio de bioensaios por aplicação tópica em 11 populações de T. sordida procedentes dos Estados de Goiás, Mato Grosso e Mato Grosso do Sul. RESULTADOS: As estimativas de DL50 e RR50 demonstraram elevados níveis de suscetibilidade (DL50 < 1 e RR50 < 2). Entretanto, as análises do coeficiente angular da curva dose resposta revelaram que as populações de triatomíneos dos municípios de Firminópolis/GO, Posse/GO, Poxoréu/MT, Douradina/MS e Aparecida do Taboado/MS apresentam maiores probabilidades de evolução de resistência, portanto, mais propícias a tolerar o tratamento com deltametrina. CONCLUSÕES: Detectaram-se pequenas alterações de suscetibilidade e baixos níveis de resistência, porém as alterações temporais de suscetibilidade deverão ser continuamente monitoradas, a fim de nortear adequadamente as ações de controle dos vetores da DC.
ABSTRACT. Cabossous tatouay Desmarest, 1804 is considered a rare species in southern South America, and Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, records of the species are scarce and inaccurate. This study reports 40 localities for C. tatouay, and provides a map of the species' potential distribution using ecological niche modeling (ENM). The ENM indicated that in this region C. tatouay is associated with open grasslands, including the areas of "Pampas" and the open fields in the highlands of the Atlantic Forest. This study contributes to the information about the greater naked-tailed armadillo in southern Brazil, and provides data key to its future conservation.
INTRODUÇÃO: As hantaviroses apresentam distribuição mundial e constituem importante problema de saúde pública. A epidemiologia da hantavirose no Brasil mostra que vem aumentando a cada ano o número de casos que são notificados e de variantes que têm sido descobertas em diversos estados e no Distrito Federal. Neste contexto, o estudo tem como objetivo principal analisar o uso e da ocupação do solo na disseminação da hantavirose no Distrito Federal, no período de 2004 a 2008. MÉTODOS: Para a realização desta pesquisa, foram utilizados dados epidemiológicos e do uso da terra com fins de elaborar tabelas e cartogramas para detalhar a espacialização da hantavirose no território. RESULTADOS: Dos 40 locais prováveis de infecção (LPIs) plotados no Mapa de Cobertura e Uso da Terra, 19 (47%) ocorreram em áreas de pastagens, 10 (25%) em área urbana (periurbana), 6 (15%) em áreas utilizadas para a agricultura e 5 (12%) em espaços de cerrado. CONCLUSÕES: Sendo assim, as atividades agrícolas e a expansão urbana em direção às áreas de cerrado vêm favorecendo a disseminação da hantavirose no Distrito Federal e em especialmente em São Sebastião.
The rodent Necromys lasiurus (Rodentia, Sigmodontinae) is considered to be the main hantavirus reservoir in the Brazilian Cerrado biome. Significant changes to the landscape of this biome have occurred in recent decades. Considering the fact that change in land use patterns can influence species distribution and, as a result, the emergence of diseases, this study sought to analyze the potential geographic distribution of the species N. lasiurus and to understand how land use and occupation contribute to the distribution of this species. Using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), environmental suitability models were constructed for N. lasiurus. The Maxent algorithm was used with predictor variables indicated by the results of the jackknife technique. Test accuracy was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). The differences in the potential distribution models resulting from the inclusion or exclusion of land use as a variable were not random (p < 0.0001). The jackknife method indicated that the variables referred to as percentage of vegetation cover and land use are the strongest predictive models (38.9% and 37.9%, respectively). The AUC evaluation indicated good performance (0.93 and 0.92). When inserted into the model, the variables land use and vegetation cover were found to significantly influence potential N. lasiurus distribution. These variables should be considered when predicting the occurrence of this medically important rodent.
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