Graphical abstract

Increasing evidence suggests that the infectiousness of patients for the sand fly vector of visceral leishmaniasis is linked to parasites found in the skin. Using a murine model that supports extensive skin infection with Leishmania donovani, spatial analyses at macro-(quantitative PCR) and micro-(confocal microscopy) scales indicate that parasite distribution is markedly skewed. Mathematical models accounting for this heterogeneity demonstrate that while a patchy distribution reduces the expected number of sand flies acquiring parasites, it increases the infection load for sand flies feeding on a patch, increasing their potential for onward transmission. Models representing patchiness at both macro- and micro-scales provide the best fit with experimental sand fly feeding data, pointing to the importance of the skin parasite landscape as a predictor of host infectiousness. Our analysis highlights the skin as a critical site to consider when assessing treatment efficacy, transmission competence and the impact of visceral leishmaniasis elimination campaigns.

No abstract