No abstract

An assessment of the risk of illness associated with Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef was drafted in 2001. The exposure assessment considers farm, slaughter, and preparation factors that influence the likelihood of humans consuming ground beef servings containing E. coli O157:H7 and the number of cells in a contaminated serving. Apparent seasonal differences in prevalence of cattle infected with E. coli O157:H7 corresponded to seasonal differences in human exposure. The model predicts that on average 0.018% of servings consumed during June through September and 0.007% of servings consumed during the remainder of the year are contaminated with one or more E. coli O157:H7 cells. This exposure risk is combined with the probability of illness given exposure (i.e., dose response) to estimate a U.S. population risk of illness of nearly one illness in each 1 million (9.6 x 10(-7)) servings of ground beef consumed. Uncertainty about this risk ranges from about 0.33 illness in every 1 million ground beef servings at the 5th percentile to about two illnesses in every 1 million ground beef servings at the 95th percentile.

Deli meat was ranked as the highest-risk ready-to-eat food vehicle of Listeria monocytogenes within the 2003 U.S. Food and Drug Administration and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service risk assessment. The comparative risk of L. monocytogenes in retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was evaluated with a modified version of this model. Other research has found that retail-sliced deli meats have both higher prevalence and levels of L. monocytogenes than have product sliced and packaged at the manufacturer level. The updated risk assessment model considered slicing location as well as the use of growth inhibitors. The per annum comparative risk ratio for the number of deaths from retail-sliced versus prepackaged deli meats was found to be 4.89, and the per-serving comparative risk ratio was 4.27. There was a significant interaction between the use of growth inhibitors and slicing location. Almost 70% of the estimated deaths occurred from retail-sliced product that did not possess a growth inhibitor. A sensitivity analysis, assessing the effect of the model's consumer storage time and shelf life assumptions, found that even if retail-sliced deli meats were stored for a quarter of the time prepackaged deli meats were stored, retail-sliced product is 1.7 times more likely to result in death from listeriosis. Sensitivity analysis also showed that the shelf life assumption had little effect on the comparative risk ratio.