A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.

A key question in pandemic influenza is the relative roles of innate immunity and target cell depletion in limiting primary infection and modulating pathology. Here, we model these interactions using detailed data from equine influenza virus infection, combining viral and immune (type I interferon) kinetics with estimates of cell depletion. The resulting dynamics indicate a powerful role for innate immunity in controlling the rapid peak in virus shedding. As a corollary, cells are much less depleted than suggested by a model of human influenza based only on virus-shedding data. We then explore how differences in the influence of viral proteins on interferon kinetics can account for the observed spectrum of virus shedding, immune response, and influenza pathology. In particular, induction of high levels of interferon ("cytokine storms"), coupled with evasion of its effects, could lead to severe pathology, as hypothesized for some fatal cases of influenza.

Equine influenza virus (EIV) surveillance is important in the management of equine influenza. It provides data on circulating and newly emerging strains for vaccine strain selection. To this end, antigenic characterisation by haemaggluttination inhibition (HI) assay and phylogenetic analysis was carried out on 28 EIV strains isolated in North America and Europe during 2006 and 2007. In the UK, 20 viruses were isolated from 28 nasopharyngeal swabs that tested positive by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All except two of the UK viruses were characterised as members of the Florida sublineage with similarity to A/eq/Newmarket/5/03 (clade 2). One isolate, A/eq/Cheshire/1/06, was characterised as an American lineage strain similar to viruses isolated up to 10 years earlier. A second isolate, A/eq/Lincolnshire/1/07 was characterised as a member of the Florida sublineage (clade 1) with similarity to A/eq/Wisconsin/03. Furthermore, A/eq/Lincolnshire/1/06 was a member of the Florida sublineage (clade 2) by haemagglutinin (HA) gene sequence, but appeared to be a member of the Eurasian lineage by the non-structural gene (NS) sequence suggesting that reassortment had occurred. A/eq/Switzerland/P112/07 was characterised as a member of the Eurasian lineage, the first time since 2005 that isolation of a virus from this lineage has been reported. Seven viruses from North America were classified as members of the Florida sublineage (clade 1), similar to A/eq/Wisconsin/03. In conclusion, a variety of antigenically distinct EIVs continue to circulate worldwide. Florida sublineage clade 1 viruses appear to predominate in North America, clade 2 viruses in Europe.