Influenza virus infection remains a public health problem worldwide. The mechanisms underlying viral control during an uncomplicated influenza virus infection are not fully understood. Here, we developed a mathematical model including both innate and adaptive immune responses to study the within-host dynamics of equine influenza virus infection in horses. By comparing modeling predictions with both interferon and viral kinetic data, we examined the relative roles of target cell availability, and innate and adaptive immune responses in controlling the virus. Our results show that the rapid and substantial viral decline (about 2 to 4 logs within 1 day) after the peak can be explained by the killing of infected cells mediated by interferon activated cells, such as natural killer cells, during the innate immune response. After the viral load declines to a lower level, the loss of interferon-induced antiviral effect and an increased availability of target cells due to loss of the antiviral state can explain the observed short phase of viral plateau in which the viral level remains unchanged or even experiences a minor second peak in some animals. An adaptive immune response is needed in our model to explain the eventual viral clearance. This study provides a quantitative understanding of the biological factors that can explain the viral and interferon kinetics during a typical influenza virus infection.

A key question in pandemic influenza is the relative roles of innate immunity and target cell depletion in limiting primary infection and modulating pathology. Here, we model these interactions using detailed data from equine influenza virus infection, combining viral and immune (type I interferon) kinetics with estimates of cell depletion. The resulting dynamics indicate a powerful role for innate immunity in controlling the rapid peak in virus shedding. As a corollary, cells are much less depleted than suggested by a model of human influenza based only on virus-shedding data. We then explore how differences in the influence of viral proteins on interferon kinetics can account for the observed spectrum of virus shedding, immune response, and influenza pathology. In particular, induction of high levels of interferon ("cytokine storms"), coupled with evasion of its effects, could lead to severe pathology, as hypothesized for some fatal cases of influenza.

Equine influenza is a common disease of the horse, causing significant morbidity worldwide. Here we describe the establishment of a plasmid-based reverse genetics system for equine influenza virus. Utilizing this system, we generated three mutant viruses encoding carboxy-terminally truncated NS1 proteins. We have previously shown that a recombinant human influenza virus lacking the NS1 gene (delNS1) could only replicate in interferon (IFN)-incompetent systems, suggesting that the NS1 protein is responsible for IFN antagonist activity. Contrary to previous findings with human influenza virus, we found that in the case of equine influenza virus, the length of the NS1 protein did not correlate with the level of attenuation of that virus. With equine influenza virus, the mutant virus with the shortest NS1 protein turned out to be the least attenuated. We speculate that the basis for attenuation of the equine NS1 mutant viruses generated is related to their level of NS1 protein expression. Our findings show that the recombinant mutant viruses are impaired in their ability to inhibit IFN production in vitro and they do not replicate as efficiently as the parental recombinant strain in embryonated hen eggs, in MDCK cells, or in vivo in a mouse model. Therefore, these attenuated mutant NS1 viruses may have potential as candidates for a live equine influenza vaccine.

These data also serve as a scientific basis for investigating the source of epizootics and outbreaks both nationally and internationally.