Inland excess water hazard was regionalized and digitally mapped using auxiliary spatial environmental information for a county in Eastern Hungary. Quantified parameters representing the effect of soil, geology, groundwater, land use and hydrometeorology on the formulation of inland excess water were defined and spatially explicitly derived. The complex role of relief was characterized using multiple derivatives computed from a DEM. Legacy maps displaying inland excess water events were used as a reference dataset. Regression kriging was applied for spatial inference with the correlation between environmental factors and inundation determined using multiple linear regressions. A stochastic factor derived through kriging the residual was added to the regression results, thus producing the final inundation hazard map. This may be of use for numerous landrelated activities.

Inland excess water (IEW) is a form of surplus surface water, often regarded as a specific flood type. However, it occurs most frequently in local depressions of large flat areas, irrespective of river floods and the surface water networks. IEW is considered to be a typical Carpathian Basin problem, as it can cause major land degradation problems in the agricultural areas of Hungary, mainly located on the Great Hungarian Plain (GHP). An innovative method for mapping the probability of IEW inundation is proposed in this study. This method is based on the geostatistical modelling of the relationship between the natural and human driving factors and the occurrence of IEW inundations. The results show that significant part of the GHP (about 500,000 hectares) is moderately or highly affected by IEW inundations, where the combination of multiple influencing factors simultaneously occur. The resulted IEW inundation probability map can be used to meet future challenges in agricultural management and the adaptations to climate change effects.

Inland excess water is temporary water inundation that occurs in flat-lands due to both precipitation and groundwater emerging on the surface as substantial sources. Inland excess water is an interrelated natural and human induced land degradation phenomenon, which causes several problems in the flat-land regions of Hungary covering nearly half of the country. Identification of areas with high risk requires spatial modelling, that is mapping of the specific natural hazard. Various external environmental factors determine the behavior of the occurrence, frequency of inland excess water. Spatial auxiliary information representing inland excess water forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced inland excess water frequency observations. Two hybrid spatial prediction approaches were tested to construct reliable maps, namely Regression Kriging (RK) and Random Forest with Ordinary Kriging (RFK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use, and climate. Comparing the results of the two approaches, we did not find significant differences in their accuracy. Although both methods are appropriate for predicting inland excess water hazard, we suggest the usage of RFK, since (i) it is more suitable for revealing non-linear and more complex relations than RK, (ii) it requires less presupposition on and preprocessing of the applied data, (iii) and keeps the range of the reference data, while RK tends more heavily to smooth the estimations, while (iv) it provides a variable rank, providing explicit information on the importance of the used predictors.

<p>Inland excess water (IEW), considered to be a typical Carpathian Basin land degradation problem, is an interrelated natural and human induced phenomenon, which causes several problems in the flat-land regions of Hungary covering nearly half of the country. The term ‘inland excess water’ refers to the occurrence of inundations outside the flood levee that originate from sources differing from flood overflow, it is surplus surface water forming due to the lack of runoff, insufficient absorption capability of soil or the upwelling of groundwater. There is a multiplicity of definitions, which indicate the complexity of processes that govern this phenomenon. Most of the definitions have a common part, namely, that inland excess water is temporary water inundation that occurs in flat-lands due to both precipitation and groundwater emerging on the surface as substantial sources.<br>Identification of areas with high risk requires spatial modelling, that is mapping of the specific natural hazard. Various external environmental factors determine the behaviour of the occurrence, frequency of IEW. Spatial auxiliary information representing IEW forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency values. Two hybrid spatial prediction approaches, which combine machine learning and geostatistics, were tested to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) and Random Forest with Ordinary Kriging (RFK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. Both methods divides the spatial inference into two parts. <br>In Regression Kriging the target variable is modelled at first by multiple linear regression (MLR) of the environmental co-variables. Then ordinary kriging is applied on the difference between the reference and the modelled values (residuals). The prediction result map comes from the sum of the MLR model and the interpolated residuals. Random Forest combined with Kriging is a relatively new method applied in digital environmental mapping. In RFK, the deterministic component of spatial variation is modelled by random forest (RF).  RF algorithm builds lots of regression trees and the final model relies on averaging the result of the trees, which are grown independently from each other. In RFK the stochastic part of variation is modelled by kriging using the derived residuals. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions.<br>Comparing the results of the two approaches, we did not find significant differences in their accuracy in our pilot. However, both methods are appropriate for predicting inland excess water hazard, RFK is suitable for revealing non-linear and more complex relations than RK. Therefore, we suggest the usage of RFK in further predictions and investigations.</p><p>Acknowledgement: Our work was supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).</p>

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