BackgroundAlthough back complaints are common among older people, limited information is available in the literature about the clinical course of back pain in older people and the identification of older persons at risk for the transition from acute back complaints to chronic back pain.The aim of this study is to assess the course of back complaints and identify prognostic factors for the transition from acute back complaints to chronic back complaints in older people who visit a primary health care physician.Methods/designThe design is a prospective cohort study with one-year follow-up. There will be no interference with usual care. Patients older than 55 years who consult a primary health care physician with a new episode of back complaints will be included in this study.Data will be collected using a questionnaire, physical examination and X-ray at baseline, and follow-up questionnaires after 6 weeks and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months.The study 'Back Complaints in the Elders' (BACE) will take place in different countries: starting in the Netherlands, Brazil and Australia. The research groups collaborate in the BACE consortium. The design and basic objectives of the study will be the same across the studies.DiscussionThis consortium is a collaboration between different research groups, aiming to provide insight into the course of back complaints in older people and to identify prognostic factors for the transition from acute back complaints to chronic back complaints in older persons. The BACE consortium allows to investigate differences between older people with back complaints and the health care systems in the different countries and to increase the statistical power by enabling meta-analyses using the individual patient data. Additional research groups worldwide are invited to join the BACE consortium.

The aim of the current study was to determine the course of back pain in older patients and identify prognostic factors for non-recovery at 3 months' follow-up. We conducted a prospective cohort study (the BACE study) of patients aged >55 years visiting a general practitioner (GP) with a new episode of back pain in the Netherlands. The course of back pain was described in terms of self-perceived recovery, pain severity, disability, pain medication, and GP visits at 6 weeks' and 3 months' follow-up. Prognostic factors for non-recovery at 3 months' follow-up were derived from the baseline questionnaire and physical examination. Variables with a prognostic value were identified with multivariable logistic regression analysis (method backward), and an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated for the prognostic model. A total of 675 back pain patients (mean age 66.4 (SD 7.6) years) participated in the BACE cohort study. At 6 weeks' follow-up 64% of the patients reported non-recovery from back pain. At 3 months' follow-up 61% still reported non-recovery, but only 26% of these patients had revisited the GP. Longer duration of the back pain, severity of back pain, history of back pain, absence of radiating pain in the leg below the knee, number of comorbidities, patients' expectation of non-recovery, and a longer duration of the timed 'Up and Go' test were significantly associated with non-recovery in a multiple regression model (AUC 0.79). This information can help GPs identify older back pain patients at risk for non-recovery.

In these older adults with back pain presenting in general practice, 6% were diagnosed with serious pathology, mainly a vertebral fracture (5%). Four red flags were associated with the presence of vertebral fracture.