A field research campaign, the Hail Spatial and Temporal Observing Network Effort (HailSTONE), was designed to obtain physical high-resolution hail measurements at the ground associated with convective storms to help address several operational challenges that remain unsatisfied through public storm reports. Field phases occurred over a 5-yr period, yielding hail measurements from 73 severe thunderstorms [hail diameter ≥ 1.00 in. (2.54 cm)]. These data provide unprecedented insight into the hailfall character of each storm and afford a baseline to explore the representativeness of the climatological hail database and hail forecasts in NWS warning products. Based upon the full analysis of HailSTONE observations, hail sizes recorded in Storm Data as well as hail size forecasts in NWS warnings frequently underestimated the maximum diameter hailfall occurring at the surface. NWS hail forecasts were generally conservative in size and at least partially calibrated to incoming hail reports. Storm mode played a notable role in determining the potential range of maximum hail size during the life span of each storm. Supercells overwhelmingly produced the largest hail diameters, with smaller maximum hail sizes observed as convection became progressively less organized. Warning forecasters may employ a storm-mode hail size forecast philosophy, in conjunction with other radar-based hail detection techniques, to better anticipate and forecast hail sizes during convective warning episodes.

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The occurrence of giant hail, defined as hail ≥102 mm (4.00 in) in diameter, is a relatively rare phenomenon, accounting for less than 1% of all hail reports in the United States.  Despite the infrequent nature of these events, hail of this magnitude has the potential to cause extreme damage to property and a substantial threat to exposed life.  The short-term prediction of these events has been challenging.  For giant hail since 2005, only 7% of convective warnings and severe-weather statements issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) accurately predicted a maximum hail size ≥102 mm prior to the report, with an average underestimated size error of 55.6 mm (2.19 in). The objectives of this study are to determine the detectability of giant hail in convective storms and to improve advanced recognition of these events during NWS warning operations.  A total of 568 giant-hail reports, gathered over a 15-y period from 1 January 1995 through 31 December 2009 throughout the contiguous United States, served as the primary database for the research. Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) environmental data were collected for each case.  Several radar signatures were examined to assess their utility in discriminating storms most favorable for giant hail.  It was found that 99% of the storms were supercells with well-organized structure.  Giant-hail producing storms were characterized by median values of rotational velocities of 24 m s-1 (47 kt), storm-top divergence magnitudes of 72 m s-1 (140 kt), and 50-dBZ and 60-dBZ echo heights of 13 100 m (43 000 ft) and 10 600 m (34 800 ft) respectively.  Vertically integrated liquid water (VIL)-based products, maximum reflectivity within the storm, and reflectivity within the preferred hail-growth zone showed little to no skill in discriminating between giant hail and smaller hail sizes.

Real-time confirmation of a tornado specified in National Weather Service (NWS) warnings and statements is believed to increase the credibility and urgency of these critical warning messages for the end user, because it represents the greatest degree of certainty that the hazard exists. This timely tornado information disseminated in official NWS products and relayed through multiple sources by private and public partners may help the public believe, personalize, confirm, and respond to the warning message. This is the first study to explicitly assess the frequency of real-time confirmation of ongoing tornadoes within NWS products and explore what unique conditions may facilitate or hinder this process. Tornado reports and their respective NWS warnings and statements during a 5-yr period from 2007 to 2011 across the central contiguous United States were compiled and examined. Overall, 40% of tornadoes were confirmed in NWS products in real time. Increasing tornado pathlength, duration, and intensity subsequently resulted in an increasing likelihood of real-time confirmation prior to the tornado dissipating. The time of day was a factor; nighttime tornadoes were 20% less likely to receive real-time confirmation than daytime events. Additionally, increasing tornado forecast risk in products issued by the Storm Prediction Center corresponded to an increasing likelihood of real-time confirmation. Analysis of these data reveals specific scenarios when tornadoes are more or less likely to be reported in real time, providing some guidance for when timely ground-truth information may or may not be available.