No abstract

This paper puts forward a framework for probabilistic and holistic cost-effectiveness analysis to provide support in selecting the least-cost set of measures to reach a multidimensional environmental objective. Following the principles of ecosystem-based management, the framework includes a flexible methodology for deriving and populating criteria for effectiveness and costs and analyzing complex ecological-economic trade-offs under uncertainty. The framework is applied in the development of the Finnish Programme of Measures (PoM) for reaching the targets of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The numerical results demonstrate that substantial cost savings can be realized from careful consideration of the costs and multiple effects of management measures. If adopted, the proposed PoM would yield improvements in the state of the Baltic Sea, but the overall objective of the MSFD would not be reached by the target year of 2020; for various environmental and administrative reasons, it would take longer for most measures to take full effect.

No abstract

Mikkonen, S., Rahikainen, M., Virtanen, J., Lehtonen, R., Kuikka, S., and Ahvonen, A. 2008. A linear mixed model with temporal covariance structures in modelling catch per unit effort of Baltic herring. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 1645–1654. Changes in the structure and attributes of a fleet over time will break down the proportionality of catch per unit effort (cpue) and stock biomass. Moreover, logbook data from commercial fisheries are hierarchical and autocorrelated. Such features not only complicate the analysis of cpue data but also seriously limit the application of a generalized linear model approach, which nevertheless is applied commonly. We demonstrate a linear mixed model application for a large hierarchical dataset containing autocorrelated observations. In the analysis, the key idea is to explore the properties of the error term of the model. We modified the residual covariance matrix, allowing the introduction of assumed fisher behaviour, influencing the catch rate. Fisher behaviour consists of accumulated knowledge and learning processes from their earlier area- and time-specific catch rates. Also, we investigated the effects of vessel-specific parameters by introducing random intercepts and slopes in the model. A model with the autoregressive moving average residual covariance matrix structure was superior over the block-diagonal and autoregressive (AR1) structure for the data, having a time-dependent correlation among trawl hauls. The results address the benefits of statistically advanced methods in obtaining precise and unbiased estimates from cpue data, to be used further in stock assessment. Fisheries agencies are encouraged to monitor the relevant vessel and gear attributes, including engine power and gear size, and the deployment practices of the gear.

The total value of Finnish fisheries production in 1997 was almost FIM 2 billion. The bulk of this sum was from processing and wholesaling, but in terms of value added, somewhat more than half was contributed by the primary sector, i.e. fishing and fish farming. In economic terms, fisheries accounted for 0.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1997 and the relative job creation capacity was 0.15%. This paper examines the structure of Finnish fisheries in terms of production value and employment. It also considers the level of dependency on fisheries and of value added along the production chain. The focus is on concentration of the industry and on input to the economy at the regional level. The concentration of fisheries and regional dependence on fisheries are assessed in absolute and relative terms. Examining employment and value added in these two ways enables the regional nature of fisheries to be shown in greater detail. The input of fisheries to the regional economy is examined by the share of value added and by location quotients. The location quotient compares an area’s share of a particular activity with that area’s share of some basic or aggregated phenomenon. The location quotient showed that fisheries have importance not only in the coastal area but also inland.