Crises are truly social phenomenon and that is why they have strategic importance and require increased state regulation. The global economic crisis of 2008 has rapidly mastered the world and significantly affected national economies. The aim is to show that economic crisis has always represented a great challenge for economic theory and policy, and that the theoreticians and practitioners demonstrated the need to create a new model of economic growth and change the dominant theoretical paradigm. There are many findings but the most important ones are as follows: The recent crisis has shown how unregulated market can lead capitalism to its disaster. Neoliberal doctrine had a strong negative impact on policy which helped spread of the crisis. It was a sign that it is necessary to create a new theoretical and macroeconomic paradigm and a new model of economic growth that would be the answer to the recent economic crisis because it has shown that the neoliberal mode of economic policy has been wrong and ineffective in terms of the global economic crisis. In process of continuous global changes, it is necessary to build a stable society, which is going to be humane and socially balanced.
The effects of coronavirus pandemics are omnipresent in the national economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Output and unemployment are probably the most important variables for measuring the negative effects of the pandemics from a macroeconomic perspective. Different organizations, both national and international, have announced their autumn and winter prognoses of these variables for 2020. None of them are optimistic. The Bosnian economy is in the worst situation in the last two decades. International Monetary Fund approved US$ 361 million in urgent support to B&H in 2020 to alleviate the COVID-19 negative economic consequences. This paper aims to investigate the potential economic impact of that financial support with the application of simple arithmetic. In the paper, Okun's law is used as a methodological framework to assessing the effects of the IMF's rapid financial instrument. The relationship between the real economic growth and change in the unemployment rate is estimated for the B&H economy. Findings of the paper show that the IMF financial support effect amounts to about 3.7% of GDP in B&H. Effects on the unemployment rate are estimated to 2.3 percentage points less than what it would otherwise have been. Since the early estimations of the GDP in B&H indicated a deep recession in 2020 this financial support proved to be an insufficient stimulus to the B&H economy. Decision-makers in the country should be aware of their responsibility for providing larger stimulus packages to avoid bad economic and social outcomes soon.
Structure of each economy, especially those in transition, is in constant change. Shift-share analysis is widely used for studying of regional economic change. The model in which the present analysis is conducted has three components: (i) the national growth component (in this paper the entity level of Federation of BH is used as reference level), (ii) the industry mix component, and (iii) the competitive component. Each of them is measured on the basis of employment. The analysis enables assessment of economic performance of a region (here cantons) in comparison to a reference level (here the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina).
Total public debt of ten cantons in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), one of the two entities in BiH, have substantially increased in recent years. Since it is relatively small in nominal terms, this galloping trend have not attracted enough attention of decision makers. If these developments continue in the future, the public debt at cantonal level in FBiH might create serious fiscal problems and become one of central issues for policy makers. This has motivated our investigation of determinants that caused the increase in public debt over the period 2012-2018.We apply a panel regression analysis and investigate how budget deficit, trade balance, unemployment rate, size of population and institutional changes affect public debt. We find that public debt is positively associated with budget deficit but negatively associated with trade balance, the size of population and institutional changes. These findings motivated policy recommendations presented in the paper.
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