Deep convective storms with overshooting tops (OTs) are capable of producing hazardous weather conditions such as aviation turbulence, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. This paper presents a new objective infrared-only satellite OT detection method called infrared window (IRW)-texture. This method uses a combination of 1) infrared window channel brightness temperature (BT) gradients, 2) an NWP tropopause temperature forecast, and 3) OT size and BT criteria defined through analysis of 450 thunderstorm events within 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery. Qualitative validation of the IRW-texture and the well-documented water vapor (WV) minus IRW BT difference (BTD) technique is performed using visible channel imagery, CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, and/or Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) cloud-top height for selected cases. Quantitative validation of these two techniques is obtained though comparison with OT detections from synthetic satellite imagery derived from a cloud-resolving NWP simulation. The results show that the IRW-texture method false-alarm rate ranges from 4.2% to 38.8%, depending upon the magnitude of the overshooting and algorithm quality control settings. The results also show that this method offers a significant improvement over the WV-IRW BTD technique. A 5-yr Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-12 OT climatology shows that OTs occur frequently over the Gulf Stream and Great Plains during the nighttime hours, which underscores the importance of using a day/night infrared-only detection algorithm. GOES-12 OT detections are compared with objective Eddy Dissipation Rate Turbulence and National Lightning Detection Network observations to show the strong relationship among OTs, aviation turbulence, and cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-mm infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (,200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April-September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

Early enhanced-V studies used 8-km ground-sampled distance and 30-min temporal-sampling Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) infrared (IR) imagery. In contrast, the groundsampled distance of current satellite imagery is 1 km for low earth orbit (LEO) satellite IR imagery. This improved spatial resolution is used to detect and investigate quantitative parameters of the enhanced-V feature. One of the goals of this study is to use the 1-km-resolution LEO data to help understand the impact of higher-resolution GOES data (GOES-R) when it becomes available. A second goal is to use the LEO data available now to provide better severe storm information than GOES when it is available. This study investigates the enhanced-V feature observed with 1-km-resolution satellite imagery as an aid for severe weather warning forecasters by comparing with McCann's enhanced-V study. Therefore, verification statistics such as the probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and critical success index were calculated. Additionally, the importance of upper-level winds to severe weather occurrence will be compared with that of the quantitative parameters of the enhanced-V feature. The main goal is to provide a basis for the development of an automated detection algorithm for enhanced-V features from the results in this study. Another goal is to examine daytime versus nighttime satellite overpass distributions with the enhanced-V feature.

Two satellite infrared-based overshooting convective cloud-top (OT) detection methods have recently been described in the literature: 1) the 11-μm infrared window channel texture (IRW texture) method, which uses IRW channel brightness temperature (BT) spatial gradients and thresholds, and 2) the water vapor minus IRW BT difference (WV-IRW BTD). While both methods show good performance in published case study examples, it is important to quantitatively validate these methods relative to overshooting top events across the globe. Unfortunately, no overshooting top database currently exists that could be used in such study. This study examines National Aeronautics and Space Administration CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar data to develop an OT detection validation database that is used to evaluate the IRW-texture and WV-IRW BTD OT detection methods. CloudSat data were manually examined over a 1.5-yr period to identify cases in which the cloud top penetrates above the tropopause height defined by a numerical weather prediction model and the surrounding cirrus anvil cloud top, producing 111 confirmed overshooting top events. When applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager proxy data, the IRW-texture (WV-IRW BTD) method offered a 76% (96%) probability of OT detection (POD) and 16% (81%) false-alarm ratio. Case study examples show that WV-IRW BTD > 0 K identifies much of the deep convective cloud top, while the IRW-texture method focuses only on regions with a spatial scale near that of commonly observed OTs. The POD decreases by 20% when IRW-texture is applied to current geostationary imager data, highlighting the importance of imager spatial resolution for observing and detecting OT regions.

The empirical Probability of Severe (ProbSevere) model, developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), automatically extracts information related to thunderstorm development from several data sources to produce timely, short-term, statistical forecasts of thunderstorm intensity. More specifically, ProbSevere utilizes short-term numerical weather prediction guidance (NWP), geostationary satellite, ground-based radar, and ground-based lightning data to determine the probability that convective storm cells will produce severe weather up to 90 min in the future. ProbSevere guidance, which updates approximately every 2 min, is available to National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices with very short latency. This paper focuses on the integration of ground-based lightning detection data into ProbSevere. In addition, a thorough validation analysis is presented. The validation analysis demonstrates that ProbSevere has slightly less skill compared to NWS severe weather warnings, but can offer greater lead time to initial hazards. Feedback from NWS users has been highly favorable, with most forecasters responding that ProbSevere increases confidence and lead time in numerous warning situations.