Black bears (Ursus americanus) are an iconic and common species throughout much of the United States and people regularly interact with these large predators without conflict. However, negative interactions between people and bears can manifest in conflicts that can hinder conservation efforts. Black bears are highly attracted to anthropogenic sources of food, and negative interactions with people are primarily a product of trash mismanagement. In the Catskills region of New York State, home to a large population of black bears, over 400 such conflicts are reported each year. While the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has seen progress recently in educating residents of the region on how to reduce unwanted interactions with bears, they have had less success educating the 12 million tourists that visit the Catskills each year. Understanding where conflict may occur in the future, and the environmental and anthropogenic factors that precede it, may help guide management strategies to reduce these unwanted interactions. Therefore, we designed resource selection probability functions (RSPFs) to examine the relationship between human-black bear conflicts in the Catskills with a suite of landscape and anthropogenic data, using conflicts reported to the DEC across the state of New York in 2018–2019. We found that human-black bear conflicts were more likely to occur in the residential areas of the Catskills on the urban-wildland interface; areas with relatively higher human population densities, away from dense forest, and further from heavily urbanized areas. While future work is needed to continuously validate our model predictions, our results will provide the DEC and other conservation managers in the Catskills the ability to create more targeted plans for mitigating unwanted human-black bear interactions, and provide a better understanding of the mechanisms driving human-carnivore interactions at an urban-wildland interface more generally.

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IntroductionCoastal estuarine wetlands provide important habitats for a variety of endemic flora and fauna but are particularly vulnerable to biological invasions. Regular monitoring of changes in these vulnerable wetlands has become increasingly important for effective management, especially considering threats from climate change effects and human disturbance. Historical analyzes of plant invasions may guide targeted management strategies to eradicate harmful species. Estimating the distribution of invasive species has never been more accessible with the improved availability of high-resolution data and innovations in remote sensing, estimating the distribution of invasive species has never been more accessible.MethodsWe assessed the spread of non-native Phragmites australis subsp. australis in Suisun Marsh on the upper San Francisco Estuary, one of the largest brackish coastal wetlands in North America. Suisun Marsh consists of managed and tidal wetlands, and efforts have been made to control invasive P. australis on the managed wetlands to support habitat values for wildlife. We used remote-sensing analyzes of publicly available, biennial color-infrared images taken by the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) to map the expansion of invasive P. australis across two decades. We generated random forest classifications of representative images to map the distribution of P. australis, then calculated a variety of metrics describing the rate and spatial extent of the P. australis spread. Additionally, we ran generalized linear models to examine factors related to the growth of P. australis.ResultsOur classifications yielded accuracies of over 90% and showed a 234% (1,084 ha) increase in P. australis between 2003 and 2018. The expansion rate of P. australis patches averaged 1.32 m/year (±0.53 SD) which is higher than most reported in the literature. We found that P. australis expansion in managed areas within levees was significantly correlated with invasion in tidal areas outside the levees on the same parcel and also related to its spread on adjacent parcels.DiscussionOur findings suggest that despite individual landowner management efforts, P. australis has continued to expand substantially throughout Suisun Marsh. Future efforts to treat invasive P. australis may require emphasizing adaptive, collaborative management rather than individual management strategies to ensure the invasive species is eradicated on a large scale to preserve the valued ecosystem functions.