In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite‐derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice‐covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice‐free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

[1] Lake Superior summer (July -September) surface water temperatures have increased approximately 2.5°C over the interval 1979 -2006, equivalent to a rate of (11 ± 6) Â 10 À2°C yr À1 , significantly in excess of regional atmospheric warming. This discrepancy is caused by declining winter ice cover, which is causing the onset of the positively stratified season to occur earlier at a rate of roughly a half day per year. An earlier start of the stratified season significantly increases the period over which the lake warms during the summer months, leading to a stronger trend in mean summer temperatures than would be expected from changes in summer air temperature alone.Citation: Austin, J. A., and S. M. Colman (2007), Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604,

A two-dimensional numerical model is used to study the response to upwelling-and downwelling-favorable winds on a shelf with a strong pycnocline. During upwelling or downwelling, the pycnocline intersects the surface or bottom, forming a front that moves offshore. The characteristics of the front and of the inner shelf inshore of the front are quite different for upwelling and downwelling. For a constant wind stress the upwelling front moves offshore at roughly a constant rate, while the offshore displacement of the downwelling front scales as because the thickness of the bottom layer increases as the front moves offshore. The geostrophic alongshelf ͙t transport in the front is larger during downwelling than upwelling for the same wind stress magnitude because the geostrophic shear is near the bottom in downwelling as opposed to near the surface in upwelling. During upwelling, weak stratification is maintained over the inner shelf by the onshore flux of denser near-bottom water. This weak stratification suppresses vertical mixing, causing a small reduction in stress at mid depth that drives a weak cross-shelf circulation over the inner shelf. For constant stratification, the inner shelf stratification and cross-shelf circulation are stronger. During downwelling on an initially stratified shelf, the inner shelf becomes unstratified because the very weak cross-shelf circulation forces lighter water under denser, driving convection which enhances the vertical mixing. As a result the stress is nearly constant throughout the water column and the cross-shelf circulation is slightly weaker than in the initially unstratified case. The downwelling response is essentially the same for the constant stratification and the two-layer cases. Model runs including the evolution of a passive tracer indicate that the inner shelf region acts as a barrier to cross-shelf transport of tracers from the coastal boundary to farther offshore and vice versa, due to strong vertical mixing and weak cross-shelf circulation in this region.

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.