One contribution of 16 to a theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.Over the past two decades, natural history collections (NHCs) have played an increasingly prominent role in global change research, but they have still greater potential, especially for the most diverse group of animals on Earth: insects. Here, we review the role of NHCs in advancing our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary responses of insects to recent global changes. Insect NHCs have helped document changes in insects' geographical distributions, phenology, phenotypic and genotypic traits over time periods up to a century. Recent work demonstrates the enormous potential of NHCs data for examining insect responses at multiple temporal, spatial and phylogenetic scales. Moving forward, insect NHCs offer unique opportunities to examine the morphological, chemical and genomic information in each specimen, thus advancing our understanding of the processes underlying species' ecological and evolutionary responses to rapid, widespread global changes.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the anthropocene'.

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in species’ range limits, leading to poleward expansions and range losses toward the equator. However, ‘climate debt’, the gap between required and realized range shifts under changing climates, can accumulate when species are unable to track shifting conditions sufficiently rapidly to keep pace with climate changes. Currently, we do not know the rate at which species will keep pace via dispersal to track their climate envelopes, yet understanding potential differences in climate debt is central to estimating how climate change will influence extinction risk. Here, we use historical observations of 155 butterfly species found in Canada to construct climate‐based environmental niche models for each species and then compare projections with observed modern distributions to quantify climate debts. This approach suggests that high levels of climate debt are accumulating within the vast majority of these species. Such failure to track changing climates may arise from some combination of interspecific interactions such as particular food availability for specialists, abiotic barriers such as mountain ranges, or species’ intrinsic dispersal capacities. Our linear models relating climate debt to a variety of biological predictors suggest that the debts we documented are accumulating independently of dispersal ability, diet breadth, and phylogeny. A proxy for range size is the only significant predictor of climate debt, with species with narrower ranges accumulating more debt: this suggests that species with narrow ranges may be at risk from both a reduction of suitable habitat in their current range and the failure to colonize newly available habitat. Identifying the factors, whether intrinsic or imposed by local environmental conditions, that limit species’ capacities to colonize areas beyond their historical limits is vital to conservation planning.

Aim Many competing hypotheses seek to identify the mechanisms behind species richness gradients. Yet, the determinants of species turnover over broad scales are uncertain. We test whether environmental dissimilarity predicts biotic turnover spatially and temporally across an array of environmental variables and spatial scales using recently observed climate changes as a pseudo‐experimental opportunity. Location Canada. Methods We used an extensive database of observation records of 282 Canadian butterfly species collected between 1900 and 2010 to characterize spatial and temporal turnover based on Jaccard indices. We compare relationships between spatial turnover and differences in an array of relevant environmental conditions, including aspects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, primary productivity and land cover. Measurements were taken within 100‐, 200‐ and 400‐km grid cells, respectively. We tested the relative importance of each variable in predicting spatial turnover using bootstrap analysis. Finally, we tested for effects of temperature and precipitation change on temporal turnover, including distinctly accounting for turnover under individual species’ potential dispersal limitations. Results Temperature differences between areas correlate with spatial turnover in butterfly assemblages, independently of distance, sampling differences or the spatial resolution of the analysis. Increasing temperatures are positively related to biotic turnover within quadrats through time. Limitations on species dispersal may cause observed biotic turnover to be lower than expected given the magnitude of temperature changes through time. Main conclusions Temperature differences can account for spatial trends in biotic dissimilarity and turnover through time in areas where climate is changing. Butterfly communities are changing quickly in some areas, probably reflecting the dispersal capacities of individual species. However, turnover is lower through time than expected in many areas, suggesting that further work is needed to understand the factors that limit dispersal across broad regions. Our results illustrate the large‐scale effects of climate change on biodiversity in areas with strong environmental gradients.

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Aim: Recent studies have found that local-scale plots measured through time exhibit marked variation in the change in species richness. However, the overall effect often reveals no net change. Most studies to date have been agnostic about the identities of the species lost/gained and about the processes that might lead to these changes.Generalist traits might be crucial in allowing species to colonize new plots or remain resilient in situ, whereas environmental filtering might remove specialists. We test whether plots are changing in species richness, whether they are becoming more similar (i.e., becoming homogenized) through time and whether several generalist traits can predict gains or losses from local plots.Location: Canada.