No abstract

A simple score has been calculated (using only three variables from the CGA) and a practical schedule proposed to characterise patients according to the degree of mortality risk. Each of these three variables (malnutrition risk, delirium, and dependency) identified as independent prognostic factors can lead to a targeted therapeutic option to prevent early mortality.

To identify predictive factors for 2-year mortality in frail elderly patients after acute hospitalisation, and from these to derive and validate a Mortality Risk Index (MRI). A prospective cohort of elderly patients was set up in nine teaching hospitals. This cohort was randomly split up into a derivation cohort (DC) of 870 subjects and a validation cohort (VC) of 436 subjects. Data obtained from a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment were used in a Cox model to predict 2-year mortality and to identify risk groups for mortality. A ROC analysis was performed to explore the validity of the MRI. Five factors were identified and weighted using hazard ratios to construct the MRI: age 85 or over (1 point), dependence for the ADL (1 point), delirium (2 points), malnutrition risk (2 points), and co-morbidity level (2 points for medium level, 3 points for high level). Three risk groups were identified according to the MRI. Mortality rates increased significantly across risk groups in both cohorts. In the DC, mortality rates were: 20.8% in the low-risk group, 49.6% in the medium-risk group, and 62.1% in the high-risk group. In the VC, mortality rates were respectively 21.7, 48.5, and 65.4%. The area under the ROC curve for overall score was statistically the same in the DC (0.72) as in the VC (0.71). The proposed MRI appears as a simple and easy-to-use tool developed from relevant geriatric variables. Its accuracy is good and the validation procedure gives a good stability of results.

Beyond considerations on the designing of preventive policies targeting the populations at risk that have been identified here, the identification of functional factors (lack of autonomy, walking difficulties, risk of falling) suggests above all that consideration needs to be given to the organization per se of the French geriatric hospital care system, and in particular to the relevance of maintaining sector-type segregation between wards for care of acute care and those involved in rehabilitation.

The effects of age on calciotropic hormones are not completely understood. The presence of secondary hyperparathyroidism has previously been demonstrated, particularly in patients with hip fracture. The role of a disturbance of vitamin D metabolism, especially a defect in 1 alpha-hydroxylation, is debated. The aim of this study was to compare serum parathyroid hormone (PTH), osteocalcin and vitamin D metabolites (25(OH)D and 1,25(OH)2D) in osteoporotic elderly patients with hip fracture (HF) and in elderly controls. We studied 57 HF patients aged 83.9 +/- 5.9 years (mean +/- SD) and 68 controls aged 82.5 +/- 5 years recruited during two periods: 1 January and 30 April 1988 and 1989. Patients with chronic renal failure (serum creatinine above 150 mumol/l), cancer, or other metabolic bone disease were excluded. Thirty healthy young adults were studied in 1989 only for measurement of 1,25(OH)2D. (1,25(OH)2D was measured by different laboratories in 1988 and 1989 for technical reasons.) We also measured serum PTH, osteocalcin, total calcium and ionized calcium. 1,25(OH)2D levels were not statistically different between HF patients and controls for the two years, nor between HF patients and young healthy adults in 1989. 25(OH)D was decreased in HF patients (p < 0.003), as was ionized calcium. Serum PTH levels were higher in HF patients than in controls (p < 0.01). A positive correlation has been found between PTH and age in HF patients (r = 0.29; p < 0.03) and in the whole group of HF patients and controls. There was a significant decrease in osteocalcin in HF patients versus elderly controls (p < 0.04).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)