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Judgment-based estimations often are used in marketing decision making and as inputs to decision calculus models. An evaluation of different approaches to integrating individual judgments is performed in the context of a marketing situation where the “true” values being estimated are known. Experts identified by a simple external measure of expertise are found likely to provide better estimates, followed by groups participating in a Delphi process. Experts identified by self-rated confidence and interpersonal group consensus are not found likely to provide better estimates than the average of the initial judgments of the members of a group.

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A Delphi procedure is used to develop and calibrate dimensions of marketing models which may be expected to relate to the likelihood that a marketing model will be accepted by marketing managers. The resulting framework, calibrated with 10 reference models over four Delphi iterations, is used to analyze four additional models.

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