Oseltamivir is relied upon worldwide as the drug of choice for the treatment of human influenza infection. Surveillance for oseltamivir resistance is routinely performed to ensure the ongoing efficacy of oseltamivir against circulating viruses. Since the emergence of the pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus (A(H1N1)pdm09), the proportion of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses that are oseltamivir resistant (OR) has generally been low. However, a cluster of OR A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, encoding the neuraminidase (NA) H275Y oseltamivir resistance mutation, was detected in Australia in 2011 amongst community patients that had not been treated with oseltamivir. Here we combine a competitive mixtures ferret model of influenza infection with a mathematical model to assess the fitness, both within and between hosts, of recent OR A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. In conjunction with data from in vitro analyses of NA expression and activity we demonstrate that contemporary A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are now more capable of acquiring H275Y without compromising their fitness, than earlier A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating in 2009. Furthermore, using reverse engineered viruses we demonstrate that a pair of permissive secondary NA mutations, V241I and N369K, confers robust fitness on recent H275Y A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, which correlated with enhanced surface expression and enzymatic activity of the A(H1N1)pdm09 NA protein. These permissive mutations first emerged in 2010 and are now present in almost all circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Our findings suggest that recent A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are now more permissive to the acquisition of H275Y than earlier A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, increasing the risk that OR A(H1N1)pdm09 will emerge and spread worldwide.

Distinct lineages of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are harbored by spatially segregated birds, yet significant surveillance gaps exist around the globe. Virtually nothing is known from the Antarctic. Using virus culture, molecular analysis, full genome sequencing, and serology of samples from Adélie penguins in Antarctica, we confirmed infection by H11N2 subtype AIVs. Their genetic segments were distinct from all known contemporary influenza viruses, including South American AIVs, suggesting spatial separation from other lineages. Only in the matrix and polymerase acidic gene phylogenies did the Antarctic sequences form a sister relationship to South American AIVs, whereas distant phylogenetic relationships were evident in all other gene segments. Interestingly, their neuraminidase genes formed a distant relationship to all avian and human influenza lineages, and the polymerase basic 1 and polymerase acidic formed a sister relationship to the equine H3N8 influenza virus lineage that emerged during 1963 and whose avian origins were previously unknown. We also estimated that each gene segment had diverged for 49 to 80 years from its most closely related sequences, highlighting a significant gap in our AIV knowledge in the region. We also show that the receptor binding properties of the H11N2 viruses are predominantly avian and that they were unable to replicate efficiently in experimentally inoculated ferrets, suggesting their continuous evolution in avian hosts. These findings add substantially to our understanding of both the ecology and the intra- and intercontinental movement of Antarctic AIVs and highlight the potential risk of an incursion of highly pathogenic AIVs into this fragile environment.

Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in domestic and free-living birds with transmission to humans resulting in 59% mortality amongst 564 cases. The mutation of the amino acid at position 627 of the viral polymerase basic-2 protein (PB2) from glutamic acid (E) in avian isolates to lysine (K) in human isolates is frequently found, but it is not known if this change affects the fitness and pathogenicity of the virus in birds. We show here that horizontal transmission of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 H5N1 (VN/1203) virus in chickens and ducks was not affected by the change of K to E at PB2-627. All chickens died between 21 to 48 hours post infection (pi), while 70% of the ducks survived infection. Virus replication was detected in chickens within 12 hours pi and reached peak titers in spleen, lung and brain between 18 to 24 hours for both viruses. Viral antigen in chickens was predominantly in the endothelium, while in ducks it was present in multiple cell types, including neurons, myocardium, skeletal muscle and connective tissues. Virus replicated to a high titer in chicken thrombocytes and caused upregulation of TLR3 and several cell adhesion molecules, which may explain the rapid virus dissemination and location of viral antigen in endothelium. Virus replication in ducks reached peak values between 2 and 4 days pi in spleen, lung and brain tissues and in contrast to infection in chickens, thrombocytes were not involved. In addition, infection of chickens with low pathogenic VN/1203 caused neuropathology, with E at position PB2-627 causing significantly higher infection rates than K, indicating that it enhances virulence in chickens.

Low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs) are generally asymptomatic in their natural avian hosts. LPAIVs can evolve into highly pathogenic forms, which can affect avian and human populations with devastating consequences. The switch to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) from LPAIV precursors requires the acquisition of multiple basic amino acids in the haemagglutinin cleavage site (HACS) motif. Through reverse genetics of an H5N1 HPAIV, and experimental infection of chickens, we determined that viruses containing five or more basic amino acids in the HACS motif were preferentially selected over those with three to four basic amino acids, leading to rapid replacement with virus types containing extended HACS motifs. Conversely, viruses harbouring low pathogenicity motifs containing two basic amino acids did not readily evolve to extended forms, suggesting that a single insertion of a basic amino acid into the cleavage site motif of low-pathogenic viruses may lead to escalating selection for extended motifs. Our results may explain why mid-length forms are rarely detected in nature. The stability of the short motif suggests that pathogenicity switching may require specific conditions of intense selection pressure (such as with high host density) to boost selection of the initial mid-length HACS forms.