To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise

High-resolution observations from a 55-m-long wave flume were used to investigate the dynamics of wave setup over a steeply sloping reef profile with a bathymetry representative of many fringing coral reefs. The 16 runs incorporating a wide range of offshore wave conditions and still water levels were conducted using a 1:36 scaled fringing reef, with a 1:5 slope reef leading to a wide and shallow reef flat. Wave setdown and setup observations measured at 17 locations across the fringing reef were compared with a theoretical balance between the local cross-shore pressure and wave radiation stress gradients. This study found that when radiation stress gradients were calculated from observations of the radiation stress derived from linear wave theory, both wave setdown and setup were underpredicted for the majority of wave and water level conditions tested. These underpredictions were most pronounced for cases with larger wave heights and lower still water levels (i.e., cases with the greatest setdown and setup). Inaccuracies in the predicted setdown and setup were improved by including a wave-roller model, which provides a correction to the kinetic energy predicted by linear wave theory for breaking waves and produces a spatial delay in the wave forcing that was consistent with the observations.

The effect of bottom roughness on setup dynamics was investigated using high-resolution observations across a laboratory fringing reef profile with roughness elements scaled to mimic the frictional wave dissipation of a coral reef. Results with roughness were compared with smooth bottom runs across 16 offshore wave and still water level conditions. The time-averaged and depth-integrated force balance was evaluated from observations collected at 17 locations along the flume and consisted of cross-shore pressure and radiation stress gradients whose sum was balanced by quadratic mean bottom stresses. The introduction of roughness had two primary effects. First, for runs with roughness, frictional wave dissipation occurred on the reef slope offshore of the breakpoint, reducing wave heights prior to wave breaking. Second, offshore-directed mean bottom stresses were generated by the interaction of the combined wave–current velocity field with the roughness elements. These two mechanisms acted counter to one another. Frictional wave dissipation resulted in radiation stress gradients that were predicted to generate 18% (on average) less setup on the reef flat for rough runs than for smooth runs when neglecting mean bottom stresses. However, mean bottom stresses increased the predicted setup by 16% on average for runs with roughness. As a result, setup on the reef flat was comparable (7% mean difference) between corresponding rough and smooth runs. These findings are used to assess prior results from numerical modeling studies of reefs and also to discuss the broader implications for how large roughness influences setup dynamics in the nearshore zone.

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