This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. Support RAND © Copyright 2018 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark. Cover: composite from Piotr Krzeslak/GettyImages and liuzishan/GettyImages.iii PrefaceThe Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) now characterizes and understands modern warfare as a confrontation between opposing operational systems [作战体系] rather than merely opposing armies. Furthermore, the PLA's very theory of victory in modern warfare recognizes system destruction warfare as the current method of modern war fighting. Under this theory, warfare is no longer centered on the annihilation of enemy forces on the battlefield. Rather, it is won by the belligerent that can disrupt, paralyze, or destroy the operational capability of the enemy's operational system. This can be achieved through kinetic and nonkinetic strikes against key points and nodes while simultaneously employing a more robust, capable, and adaptable operational system of its own. These realizations have been reached after watching two decades of U.S. post-Cold War operations and the revolutionary role of information systems in that context. Systems thinking has an enormous impact on how the PLA is currently organizing, equipping, and training itself for future war-fighting contingencies. Although little noticed by Western scholars, thinking about system of systems and systems warfare has been pervasive in PLA writing for more than two decades. It is a topic that has been examined in hundreds of PLA newspaper and journal articles, discussed in dozens of PLA professional military education textbooks, enshrined in PLA military doctrine, and, more recently, promulgated in official Defense White Papers.This report reflects an attempt to understand current thinking in the PLA regarding system of systems and systems wariv Systems Confrontation and System Destruction Warfare fare, as well as current methods of war fighting. It also serves as a guidebook to the already substantial number of systems and systems-related concepts that abound in PLA sources. By examining numerous Chinese-language materials, this report (1) explor...

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ver the past two decades, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. A RAND Project AIR FORCE report assesses trends in the relative capabilities of U.S. and Chinese forces in diverse operational areas, and at varying distances from the Chinese mainland, between 1996 and 2017. The overall conclusion is that although China continues to lag behind the United States in terms of aggregate military hardware and operational skills, it has improved its capabilities relative to those of the United States in many critical areas. Moreover, the report finds that China does not need to catch up fully to the United States to challenge the U.S. ability to conduct effective military operations near the Chinese mainland. To be clear, the goal is to avoid war, which the authors do not anticipate and which would be disastrous for both countries. Rather, this research provides an open-source assessment of trends that could affect U.S. defense and deterrence efforts and establishes a baseline for future analysis.