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Features and interdecadal variability of droughts were assessed over the East Asian monsoon region (20 ∘ -50 ∘ N, 103 ∘ -149 ∘ E) using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the gridded rainfall data set at 0.5 ∘ resolution. To assess the spatial and temporal patterns of droughts, seven homogeneous rainfall zones that exhibit unique rainfall regimes and long-term variability over the region were used. The statistical analysis method known as the theory of runs was used to identify and characterize drought events. A run was defined as a portion of SPI drought series in which all values were below the selected threshold level. Run-length and run-sum were used to define the drought duration and drought severity, respectively. The study revealed unique drying and wetting patterns for different zones in the region. Interdecadal analysis of droughts over the past three decades revealed a significant increase in drought duration and severity in the low rainfall zones, whereas a significant decrease appeared in the high rainfall zones. In particular, the duration and severity dwindled to zero with no major drought event over the eastern and the East Sea coastal region of Japan during the last decade (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007). These patterns pose serious threats of increasing droughts in the low rainfall zones and flooding in the high rainfall zones. The spectral analysis, using the Fast Fourier Transform, was performed to identify the cyclic patterns of SPI time series in each zone, which revealed dominant cycles of 15, 7.5, and 3.4 years in the different zones. These results suggest the possible influence of interdecadal Pacific Oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillations on droughts in the region, although these relations remain a challenging task.

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Prediction of droughts has a great importance in the management and planning of water resources. This study developed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based model for prediction of droughts, and evaluated its applicability in the seven homogeneous rainfall zones of the East Asian monsoon region (20 ∘ -50 ∘ N, 103 ∘ -149 ∘ E). Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to characterize the drought events. SPI series were computed for each zone using a 30-year (1978-2007) gridded rainfall dataset (0.5 ∘ grid resolution) at the corresponding grid points. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on droughts was assessed using a lagged-correlation between global gridded SSTA (0.2 ∘ grid resolution) and the SPI of each zone. SSTA were used as a potential predictor variable based on the premise that the land-sea thermal contrast is a major driver of the monsoon. The model was trained and validated using a 25-year (1978-2002) dataset, with different configurations to obtain the optimum model structure and a set of suitable predictors. The performance of the model was demonstrated by comparing the model simulated results with the observed drought index and drought categories using a 5-year (2003-2007) independent checking dataset. The model predicted the drought categories accurately for 50 to 70% cases in checking period for different zones. The results showed the viability of the proposed model for drought prediction with substantial enhancement in accuracy when past SSTA were used as a predictor compared with the use of only past SPI data. Figure 1. The homogeneous rainfall zones over the East Asian monsoon region .