This study employed a difference-in-differences analysis technique to estimate the average treatment effect of automatic promotion on students' cognitive learning outcomes in Uganda's primary education. Regression results indicate a positive policy effect on learning achievements in literacy and numeracy at primary three (P3) and primary six (P6). Specifically, the implementation of automatic promotion policy has translated in to an increase in learning outcomes in reading and mathematics at P3 and P6, all statistically significant at conventional levels. Decomposing the effect along gender and school location (rural or urban) dimensions reveals positive and statistically significant effect on literacy and numeracy in both grades. The effect on students' scores in rural areas is higher than that on students' in urban schools. In terms of gender, the effect is relatively similar for female students and their male counterparts. These results are contrary to the popular belief among many Ugandans, but consistent with earlier scholarly works that have attributed automatic promotion with positive impact on learning outcomes.

The impact of automatic promotion practice on students dropping out of Uganda's primary education was assessed using propensity score in difference in differences analysis technique. The analysis strategy was instrumental in addressing the selection bias problem, as well as biases arising from common trends over time, and permanent latent differences between the treated and control groups. Probit regression results indicate a negative effect on the probability of students dropping out, but only at P3. There seems to be no policy effect at P6. Decomposing the effect incidence along school location shows the policy as having had an effect only on P3 students studying in urban schools; otherwise, there is no effect among students at P3 rural, P6 rural or P6 Urban. In terms of the gender component, automatic promotion appears to have had an effect on P3 male and female students and no effect on either sex at P6.