SažetakMogućnosti rasta sektora osiguranja i njegovog doprinosa razvoju nacionalne ekonomije opredeljene su performansama poslovanja osiguravajućih kompanija. U radu su prezentovani rezultati ocene performansi kompanija koje se bave poslovima neživotnih osiguranja u Srbiji. Empirijsko istraživanje je sprovedeno na osnovu finansijskih izveštaja neživotnih i kompozitnih osiguravača tokom vremenskog perioda 2006-2013. godine, primenom CARMEL pokazatelja i višestruke regresione analize. Ocenjeni model individualnih fiksnih efekata na podacima panela ukazuje na značajan negativan uticaj kombinovanog racija, finansijskog levridža i stope samopridržaja na profitabilnost neživotnih osiguravača, merene stopom prinosa na aktivu (ROA), dok je uticaj stope rasta fakturisane premije, stope investicionog prinosa i veličine kompanije značajan i pozitivan. Sprovedenim istraživanjem se obogaćuje informaciona osnova za kreiranje poslovne strategije i formulisanje politike poslovanja neživotnih osiguravača u Srbiji. AbstractThe possibilities for growth of the insurance sector and its contribution to the development of the national economy are conditioned by business performance of insurance companies. This paper presents results of the assessment of performance of companies engaged in non-life insurance business in Serbia. Empirical research was conducted on the basis of financial statements of non-life and composite insurers during the period 2006-2013 by using CARMEL indicators and multiple regression analysis. The estimated model with individual fixed effects on panel data indicates a significant and negative influence of the combined ratio, financial leverage and retention rate on the profitability of non-life insurers, as measured by the return on assets (ROA), while the influence of the written premium growth rate, return on investment and company size is significant and positive. Conducted research enriches the information basis for the creation of business strategy and formulation of business policy of non-life insurers in Serbia.

Logistic processes imply the presence of a large number of different types of risks, primarily in the fields of transport, transshipment, and storage of goods. The main reason for this fact is the presence of numerous participants of logistic systems, the existence of various interactions between large numbers of subsystems or subprocesses, which causes disturbances and uncertainties, both locally and at the system level. The initial idea of this research is to model the total risk of logistic processes based on evaluation of the significance of different risk elements, their interrelations, and their influence on total risk. This paper presents a developed fuzzy logic model based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). The model is designed to be practical, understandable, and easy to implement and maintain. The incorporated data have different forms of crisp numbers, triangular fuzzy numbers, and linguistic variables. Logistic process data are incorporated into the proposed model and validated with an example case.

SažetakU radu su prikazani teorijsko-metodološki aspekti utvrđivanja diskontne stope na primeru preduzeća NIS a.d. kao najveće energetske kompanije u Srbiji i jedne od najvećih u jugoistočnoj Evropi. Kao diskontna stopa korišćen je ukupni trošak kapitala koji predstavlja ponderisani prosek troškova sopstvenog i dugoročnog pozajmljenog kapitala. Trošak sopstvenog kapitala je izračunat primenom CAPM modela koji je, i pored svih svojih ograničenja, i dalje teorijski najispravniji i često korišćen model u praksi. Prosečni trošak dugoročnog pozajmljenog kapitala za preduzeće NIS a.d. iznosi 14,773%, trošak sopstvenog kapitala je 12,453% i ukupni trošak kapitala, WACC, je 12,505%. Glavna komponenta troška sopstvenog kapitala je premija za rizik ulaganja u Srbiju. Dobijeni rezultati pokazuju da jačanje makroekonomske stabilnosti i adekvatno upravljanje pozajmljenim izvorima sredstava mogu doprineti smanjenju ukupnog troška kapitala u naftnoj industriji Srbije. Ključne reči: diskontna stopa, WACC, trošak sopstvenog kapitala, CAPM, premija za rizik zemlje AbstractThe paper presents theoretical and methodological aspects of determining the discount rate on the example of NIS, as the largest energy company in Serbia and one of the largest in Southeast Europe. The total cost of capital which represents the weighted average of equity and long-term debt costs is used as discount rate. The cost of equity capital is calculated using the CAPM which, despite all its limitations, is still theoretically the most correct and frequently used model in practice. The average cost of long-term debt capital to the company NIS is equal to 14.773%, the cost of equity capital is 12.453% and the total cost of capital, WACC, is 12.505%. The main component of the cost of equity capital is the risk premium of investing in Serbia. The results show that macroeconomic stability strengthening and adequate management of borrowed funds can contribute to reduction of the total cost of capital in the Serbian oil industry.

SažetakZahvaljujući vremenskoj nepodudarnosti između naplata premija i isplata naknada za štete, osiguravajuće kompanije ulažu privremeno slobodna sredstva tehničkih rezervi i time ostvaruju važnu ulogu institucionalnih investitora. U radu se analiziraju mogućnosti investiranja osiguravajućih kompanija u Srbiji pri postojećim regulatornim ograničenjima i stepenu razvijenosti finansijskog tržišta. Na osnovama Markovićeve portfolio teorije, konstruisan je optimalan portfolio imovine koja služi za pokriće tehničkih rezervi neživotnih osiguravača. Rezultati istraživanja dokazuju hipotezu da kvantitativna ograničenja investicija dovode do sužavanja efikasnog skupa investicionih mogućnosti osiguravača i pogoršanja odnosa prinosa i rizika njihovih investicija. Kroz analizu realnog investicionog portfolija na nivou celokupnog sektora osiguranja, kao i konkretne osiguravajuće kompanije, generisane su preporuke za poboljšanje investicionih performansi neživotnih osiguravača. Zaključuje se da raspoloživost finansijskih instrumenata i kretanja njihovih cena i prinosa primarno opredeljuju investicione odluke osiguravača u Srbiji. Ključne reči: investicije, tehničke rezerve, rizik, prinos, investicioni portfolio AbstractOwing the time gap between the premium collection and the benefit payments, insurance companies invest temporarily free funds of technical reserves and thus fulfill an important role of institutional investors. The paper deals with the analysis of the investment possibilities of insurance companies in Serbia in terms of the existing regulatory constraints and the financial market development level. The optimal portfolio of assets used to cover technical reserves of non-life insurers is constructed on the basis of the Markowitz portfolio theory. The results of the research support the hypothesis that quantitative investment rules lead to a narrowing of an efficient set of insurer's investment opportunities and to a deterioration of risk-return trade-off of their investments. Recommendations for improving the investment performance of non-life insurers are generated through the analysis of real investment portfolio at the level of the entire insurance sector, as well as of a specific insurance company. It is concluded that the availability of financial instruments and trends in their prices and yields primarily determine investment decisions of insurers in Serbia.

Under contemporary dynamic approaches the solvency of insurance companies is determined by measuring the risks that threaten their business. This paper presents an internal model for measuring premium risk when evaluating the solvency of non-life insurers. The solvency capital requirement is calculated on the basis of a compound distribution of insurance portfolio aggregate claim amount, resulting from combining separately modelled claim frequency and severity distributions, with prior verification of earned technical premium sufficiency. The practical application of the model is illustrated by a case study of a specific non-life insurance company in Serbia. The research findings show that the dynamic model of premium risk measurement results in larger capital requirement and contributes to a more reliable assessment of insurers' solvency than the static model. This proves the inadequacy of the existing fixed ratio model and stresses the need for changes in the current methodology of determining the solvency of insurance companies in Serbia.